My Economic Forecast for Greenspan’s New Book

Alan Greenspan has a new book out. I haven’t seen it yet, since I am in London for a few days and it isn’t available here. Economist Brad DeLong talks about the book (among other things) in this podcast. Over at MarginalRevolution, Tyler Cowen offers a set of links as well.

So here is my economic forecast for the book: I read somewhere that the initial print run was 1 million. Meanwhile, Cowen says that the book is boring. Cowen is a man who loves both books and economics. If he thinks the book is boring, so will just about everyone else. I predict that 30 percent of that initial printing of books will never be sold.

A quick check of Amazon shows that the book is currently ranked No. 1 in sales. Forecasting is a risky business.

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  1. discordian says:

    Maybe if Greenspon wrote in a style more like Carl Hiassen he’d sell more books. And maybe get some movie deals.

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  2. discordian says:

    Maybe if Greenspon wrote in a style more like Carl Hiassen he’d sell more books. And maybe get some movie deals.

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  3. winston says:

    boring or not, so many people think Greenspan is the financial messiah, and will probably buy it for that reason. he struggled with clarity in most of his public speeches, and I predict that he won’t change that pattern in his book.

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  4. winston says:

    boring or not, so many people think Greenspan is the financial messiah, and will probably buy it for that reason. he struggled with clarity in most of his public speeches, and I predict that he won’t change that pattern in his book.

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  5. Markk says:

    If the book goes over a lot of standard economics info it may well be boring to an economist but not to others. It also may cover ground that public policy people know by heart having followed everything, but people that don’t follow the Fed might find new. I see this in popular science books. For example, “The Canon” is, I think, not bad for a general reader interested in science, but I found it somewhat tedious, not because it was dull per se, but because I had a background in some of the fields and already kew the stories.

    Of course just thinking of Greenspan’s snippets on the news over the years… it may well be boring.

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  6. Markk says:

    If the book goes over a lot of standard economics info it may well be boring to an economist but not to others. It also may cover ground that public policy people know by heart having followed everything, but people that don’t follow the Fed might find new. I see this in popular science books. For example, “The Canon” is, I think, not bad for a general reader interested in science, but I found it somewhat tedious, not because it was dull per se, but because I had a background in some of the fields and already kew the stories.

    Of course just thinking of Greenspan’s snippets on the news over the years… it may well be boring.

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  7. Linda Loomis says:

    What takes you to London, Levitt?

    It’s getting interesting over there in Great Britain as regards the Pirbright lab scandal. Prime Minister Gordon Brown’s Labgate?

    Yesterday’s news was about breakaway cows, and one golfer’s disgust that the government was lax about providing better biosecurity. The link also mentions how the EU is becoming involved in the situation.

    http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/science/article2469192.ece

    Attempts to contain the [foot and mouth disease]outbreak attracted criticism after four cattle escaped from a field at Ripley on Saturday as vets and slaughtermen arrived to carry out a cull.

    The cattle were apparently “spooked” shortly after 7am and fled across fields, went through a canal and ended up at the 16th hole of Pyrford Golf Club.

    Police and Defra [Department for Environment, Food, and Rural Affairs] officials ordered the greens to be cleared and kept 60 golfers in the clubhouse for five hours. Nigel Embry, 62 of Byfleet, one of the golfers, said: “I was horrified by the poor bio-security. They made us all disinfect our shoes but they were not at all interested in our golf trolleys, clubs or bags that were also in contact with the grass where the cattle had been . . . There should have been a disinfectant mat at the clubhouse.”

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  8. Linda Loomis says:

    What takes you to London, Levitt?

    It’s getting interesting over there in Great Britain as regards the Pirbright lab scandal. Prime Minister Gordon Brown’s Labgate?

    Yesterday’s news was about breakaway cows, and one golfer’s disgust that the government was lax about providing better biosecurity. The link also mentions how the EU is becoming involved in the situation.

    http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/science/article2469192.ece

    Attempts to contain the [foot and mouth disease]outbreak attracted criticism after four cattle escaped from a field at Ripley on Saturday as vets and slaughtermen arrived to carry out a cull.

    The cattle were apparently “spooked” shortly after 7am and fled across fields, went through a canal and ended up at the 16th hole of Pyrford Golf Club.

    Police and Defra [Department for Environment, Food, and Rural Affairs] officials ordered the greens to be cleared and kept 60 golfers in the clubhouse for five hours. Nigel Embry, 62 of Byfleet, one of the golfers, said: “I was horrified by the poor bio-security. They made us all disinfect our shoes but they were not at all interested in our golf trolleys, clubs or bags that were also in contact with the grass where the cattle had been . . . There should have been a disinfectant mat at the clubhouse.”

    Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0