McCain Pulls Ahead Where It Really Matters
For those of you who put more stock in betting/prediction markets than in electoral polling, here’s what you’ve been waiting to hear: John McCain has just narrowly pulled ahead of Barack Obama on InTrade.
This is news. It is perhaps not so surprising to see McCain/Palin get a big convention/Palin-novelty bump in opinion polls, for such polls merely mirror the public’s short-term attention span. But people who bet this market for real money, even if the sums aren’t great, are necessarily longer-term bettors.
FWIW, InTrade also shows that the chances of Palin being removed from the ticket have fallen to about 6 percent. Interestingly (to me at least), InTrade has Joe Biden more likely than Palin to be removed from the ticket, at nearly 8 percent. (Keep in mind, however, that the volume is so low as to be almost meaningless.)