Peak Oil Therapy

Worried that peak oil is about to put a sudden end to cheap kiwis and civilization as we know it? Kathy McMahon is a clinical psychiatrist who wants to help. She runs a website for people with peak-oil panic, which pledges to help you separate “what’s ‘mental preparation’ from what’s just ‘acting mental.’” [%comments]

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  1. Griff says:

    I’d also recommend Dimitry Orlov’s blog (and book) for those worried about the peak oil collapse: I don’t necessarily subscribe to all his ideas, but he does emphasise survival on a ‘human’ scale.

    For example, he points out we’ll have a lot of spare time to relate to our family, that building a bunker isn’t useful, but we should always plan on sharing with other people and he has a wicked sense of humour!

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  2. Griff says:

    Sorry – a link might be helpful:

    http://cluborlov.blogspot.com/

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  3. posconvex says:

    Any discussion about peak oil and oil prices over the next decade must include an attempt to quantify emerging economy demand as an important driver at the margin. Here is a simple thought experiment using Chinese demand to give some idea of the magnitude of the supply issues we face:
    - China moves from 3 bbls/person/year to the South Korean per capita consumption level of 17 bbls/person/year
    - Transition takes 30 years
    - No peak in global production

    In next 10 years we must find 44 million BOPD. If you superimpose peak production on top of this demand profile using the following parameters oil prices would increase approximately 250% in real terms over next 10 years:
    - Oil demand elasticity of -0.3
    - Current production 84 million BOPD, current price US$ 80
    - Peak production 100 million BOPD
    - Post peak decline rate of 3-4%

    If you want to try the model for yourself using your own assumptions it can be found at Petrocapita Income Trust:
    http://www.petrocapita.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=128&Itemid=86

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