A SuperFreakonomics Counting Contest

The mother of all deadlines fast approaches: our new book, SuperFreakonomics, is due to be published on October 20. In the meantime, how about a little contest?

Think of it as a guess-the-number-of-jelly-beans-in-a-jar contest except in this case the jar is infinitely expandable, and the jelly beans don’t yet exist.

Huh?

Let me explain. As I type these words, a Google search of the word “superfreakonomics” yields a tally of 11,000 results. (As with all Google searches, this is something of a phantom number: if you actually go to the end of the list, there are only 278 actual hits.)

How many Google results will the same word yield as of 6:00 a.m. (Eastern time) on Tuesday, November 3, two weeks after the pub date?

The closest guess wins a piece of Freakonomics schwag (which, by that time, will obviously include a signed copy of the new book). Leave your guess in the comments below, one per customer please. We’ll keep the voting open until end of day Friday (tomorrow).

Addendum: To clarify, the guess should reflect the Google tally (i.e., what stands today at 11,000) versus the actual hits.


John G

22,453,323

orphancow

873,251 phantom, 221,917 real

Andrew Sturm

989,454

tg3

380 000

WJSmith

500 assuming you're looking at the actual hits and not the phantom number. This includes the 278 hits that already exist. I used trends in Google searches for Freakonomics over time as a guide.

Bill Duddy

148,888

Susan

37,106

M.B.

11,001, no just kidding, 770,000

Tyler

427,144

Gregory Berck

573,573 Google Hits

Richard Howard

My guess is 729,432

Mike

327,000

Samuel

Straight up 1 million

Mark L

967,241

Jason W

465,000

Will you be averaging everyone's guesses (like the jellybean experiment, which found the average guess of a large group is usually more accurate than any of the individual guesses)?

Martin

898,656

Cmor

4,476,536

Christopher Luccy

333,000

Kevin

261,239 hits.

I hadn't heard of a new book, but I will definitely look for it.

Patrick

250,000