Dylan Martinez/ReutersAsamoah Gyan’s successful penalty kick down the center.
Our latest Freakonomics Radio podcast discussed the fact that soccer players are generally reluctant to aim penalty kicks at the center of the goal even though the data show that is the most effective spot.
We expanded on this topic in a (U.K.) Times article yesterday.
And then Asamoah Gyan of Ghana went out and made us look smart in a match against Serbia. In the 84th minute of a nil-nil game, Gyan took a penalty and went center with it, producing a big 1-0 upset. (As of this writing, Gyan’s was the only penalty kick taken in the World Cup, although there will be plenty in the knockout round, when tie games are decided by shootouts.)
The method is effective because keepers usually commit to jumping left or right on penalty kicks just as the ball is struck. Kicking to the center seems to work with English keeper Robert Green as well, but for different reasons.
(Hat tip: Collin Campbell.)
Of course, if players did start aiming for the center more often, keepers would obviously adjust accordingly.
Low blow on Green! I love it!
As a former soccer player I will tell you that game theory is not really applicable to this situation.
The kicker can, if he stikes the ball well, guarantee a goal no matter what the keeper does if he puts it in the side netting.
I had a state series game go to PKs and took the last kick. I kicked right, the keeper went right, and the ball went in anyways because the placement was perfect. My teammates all told me they thought I had missed until the ball went in. You can’t guarantee success on an up-the-middle kick like you can going “Upper 90″.
What players should do is roll a die before each kick with left, right and center each given a 1/3 share of being chosen. Humans are notoriously bad at being random and will remain predictable even if they properly weight a center kick option. By making a public display of choosing one of the three options at random a Penalty Kicker can absolve himself of looking dumb as he is taking the most effective strategy.
Its natural human tendency to look stylish rather than mundane like shooting at the middle.
Cute article, but it falls short on two counts. First, if you had conducted ethnographic fieldwork (ie attended games, interviewed players) you would have learned that players often pause before hitting the ball, the goalie jumps, and the shooters decides what to do then.
And second, even if you are right that private cost of shooting down the middle (and missing) is higher than the collective cost, you just pushed the puzzle back: to explain the “irrational” shooter, you resort to the “irrational” market for soccer talent. Please explain that!
Hit any 90 and it’s GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOLLLLLLLLLLLL!!!!!!!!!
Conversely, the best tactic for goalkeepers is not to dive, but to wait for the shot and try to react to it. That makes almost any sub-par penalty saveable (excluding weird ball behaviour of course), especially anything down the middle.
As a previous commenter noted, if it’s a perfectly struck penalty into the side netting, you’re very unlikely to save it anyway.
But goalies seem equally reluctant to look foolish by ending up not diving for a shot that goes in the corner: they seem to feel more comfortable diving. At least then they’ve demonstrably tried, I suppose.
So then what would happen if the rational penalty taker goes for the middle, and the rational keeper stays in the middle?