American Health Fail: What’s Making Us Fat? A Decline in Smoking

Americans are fat. The latest obesity estimates reach as high as 30% of the population; and the future looks worse. There’s been much hand wringing over the years, with a new television show sprouting up every season imploring the obese to lose weight.

A new paper by researchers Charles Baum and Shin-Yi Chou provides a detailed look at the leading indicators of weight, using the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth from 1979 and 1997 to compare the habits, similarities and differences between people of the same age – just a quarter century apart.

The results aren’t pleasant: the largest effect on our recent weight gain? The decline in cigarette smoking.

Here’s the abstract:

We simultaneously estimate the effects of the various socio-economic factors on weight status, considering in our analysis many of the socio-economic factors that have been identified by other researchers as important influences on caloric imbalance: employment, physical activity at work, food prices, the prevalence of restaurants, cigarette smoking, cigarette prices and taxes, food stamp receipt, and urbanization. We use 1979- and 1997-cohort National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY) data, which allows us to compare the prevalence of obesity between cohorts surveyed roughly 25 years apart. Using the traditional Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition technique, we find that cigarette smoking has the largest effect: the decline in cigarette smoking explains about 2% of the increase in the weight measures. The other significant factors explain less.

The researchers examined differences in employment, physical activity at work, food prices, prevalence of restaurants, cigarette smoking, cigarette pricing, food stamp receipts and the prevalence of urban sprawl.

They found that:  “(i) occupational fitness and strength demands significantly affect weight, (ii) cigarette smoking (and being a cigarette smoker) significantly decreases weight, (iii) food stamp receipt significantly increases weight, and (iv) urban sprawl significantly increases weight.” The decline in cigarette smoking, however, only makes up about 2% of weight increase, and the authors saw their criteria show only small percentage changes in weight measures as a whole, as opposed to other studies with much higher numbers.

The authors write: “Ultimately, the socio-economic and demographic factors examined in this analysis, whether considered individually or collectively, explain a minority of the increase in BMI, overweight, and obesity.”

Leave A Comment

Comments are moderated and generally will be posted if they are on-topic and not abusive.



View All Comments »
  1. C G says:

    To further this assessment. I’d recommend reading Why We Get Fat by Gary Taubes. It takes this study to the next level and suggests a different sociology Eco favor that is very plausible.

    Thumb up 4 Thumb down 1
  2. keith says:

    Swapping crutches doesn’t make the absence of one a cause of the other. The cause is cultural insanity.

    Thumb up 2 Thumb down 3
    • Mike B says:

      I think we just have a society that is just overwhelmingly unhappy. If we aren’t smoking or overeating we are finding ways yo make ourselves feel better by pushing others down.

      Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 17 Thumb down 3
  3. Mike B says:

    Cigarette smoking also makes Medicare and Social Security much more sustainable over the long run. When both those programs were conceived massive numbers of Americans would reach age 50-65 and then drop head from smoking related illnesses. Therefore the real effect of SS and Medicare was to care for the widows of those breadwinners who had killed themselves from smoking (or on the job carcinogen exposure). Take away the population trimming effect of smoking and the benefits that few people were intended to collect now apply to huge amounts of the population. What’s even more ironic is that this and other studies show that not only were Americans left to get their dopamine hit from other sources (ie unhealthy food) they also lost their most popular appetite suppressant in the face of plummeting food prices and activity levels.

    The result is that we have traded a population that died quickly at the end of their productive years for a population that becomes increasingly sickly and then stays that way for decades at public expense. This is not meant as a call to return people to smoking, just an acknowledgement that the conditions that out social safety net was enacted under no longer apply. It is also pointing out that when unhealthy behavior is a coping mechanism to bring temporary relief to an unhappy existence, taking away that mechanism doesn’t solve the problem of unhappiness and will only cause people to find substitutes.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 37 Thumb down 0
  4. caleb b says:

    I’m sure the Blue Traveler guy is really happy you decided to use a picture of him when talking about fat people.

    …given the title of the article, is the picture supposed to beg the question, how much fatter would he be without smoking?

    Thumb up 5 Thumb down 1
  5. retailjeff says:

    The picture is worth a thousand words. The fat guy is smoking. How can the correlation be so high when so many obese people are smokers?

    Thumb up 1 Thumb down 1
  6. Chris Sampson says:

    Congratulations, Freakonomics, on your grossly misleading and erroneous headline.

    Thumb up 4 Thumb down 4
  7. briancl says:

    Not too hard to invalidate this hypothesis.. Were people fat before smoking was common?

    Causes of obesity are right in front of us. Look at the shopping carts of regular folks and ask yourself “when did we stop eating real food?” Over-engineered, preserved, processed, pulverized and reconstituted food took off in the 60s. Line up those graphs with weight or BMI or waist size or whatever you measure you prefer.

    Well-loved. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 11 Thumb down 3
    • Enter your name... says:

      Except that your story doesn’t account for the fact that so many middle-class and upper-class people were overweight and obese in previous centuries, when “real food” was the only possible form of food.

      Our “average” weight was low in previous centuries only because poor people were malnourished (this was back when people actually starved to death in “developed” countries), but take a look at the pictures of the people with modern levels of food security: For example, Queen Victoria had a BMI of 30, which puts her into the obese category, and she was not unusual.

      Thumb up 5 Thumb down 2
      • James says:

        Nor does your story explain much. We have, for instance the stereotypical image of the obese, cigar-smoking plutocrat, c.a. the late 19th century, and his equally obese non-smoking spouse. We can likewise find many examples of middle/upper-class people from those times who were emphatically not obese, for instance:

        Could it be that both smoking and food are red herrings, and that the primary determinant of obesity is, in fact, simply exercise?

        Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0
      • iluvmint says:

        Where can I find out Queen Victoria’s BMI?

        Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0
  8. Eric M. Jones. says:

    But is the increase in obesity correlated with the decline in smoking of the population of people who smoked?…or merely the overall population?….

    These are very different issues.

    Thumb up 3 Thumb down 0