Predicting the Nobel Prize

Next Monday, the Nobel Prize Committee will announce the recipient(s) of the 2011 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences.  If you think you know who’s going to score this year’s prize, head on over to Harvard’s Nobel Pool, “the world’s most accurate prediction market.”

Each entry will cost you $1; all entries and bets must be received by 11:59 PM on Sunday, October 9th. If you’re looking for inspiration, past predictions can be found here. And if you haven’t already, listen to our Freakonomics Radio podcast, “The Folly of Predictions,” to find out where we stand on the whole notion of predictions.

So Freakonomics readers, who are you betting on?

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  1. Mike B says:

    When is someone going to put together the money to get a Math/Computer Science/Information Science category added to the Nobel Roster? If economists can get in there Math folk are just as deserving.

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  2. Rick.Eichhorn says:

    But where are the predictions for this year? This market isn’t predicting anything yet. Show me the share percentages.

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  3. Eric M. Jones. says:

    Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

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    • Kenneth Otton says:

      Actually, a woman has already won the Nobel prize in Economics. L2research?

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    • round robin says:

      Dear Eric;

      I guess you are not too familiar with Freud’s achievements. Freud tried a number of experiments. I know of several successful ones that Freud either initiated or continued. One was to see if a woman could expedite the resolution of a certain matter (the way men ordinarily do). Joan Riviere succeeded with the title that she gave of Civilization and Its Discontents. A second was to see if a man would be willing to forego the expedient distribution of his energy in the interest of a long-term capital gain (so to speak) by others of knowledge and some recognition that he would not be privy to in his own lifetime. That one succeeded as well in the sense that Strachey (the editor) credited Joan Riviere for the title in the index and held back from acting upon his own need to stand in the foreground. A third was to see whether or not a certain designated woman could trace enough of the “path” (linear development) of the Psychology of the `autonomous’ individual (with help from Jaspers, Weber and a few others back to the beginning and forth to the end, thanks to Einstein and Lawson and in such a way as to warrant the conclusion that this line’s universal significance and real value would be immediately grasped. That’s my part. But then again, as I now see it- you refer to Freudian psychology and not to Freud’s psychology. So you may well be somewhat i.e., sufficiently familiar with Freud’s motives (even if not familiar with the results of my own analysis) . Is this a test or something? I hate tests. Robyn A. Goldstein. 2011 All rights reserved. No two words of this text may be used without the author’s permission.

      And then there were a few additional experiments of which we may well be both willingly involved here and now.

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    • Zain Siddiqui says:

      Um, Elinor Olstrom, last year?

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  4. `red' robin says:

    you guys got me into Nobel watching- The `true’ answer is “NO ONE.” There is no Nobel prize in economics. I do my homework.

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  5. The Regular Joe says:

    I should get the Nobel prize for this article
    http://theregjoe.blogspot.com/2010/11/small-change-can-go-long-way.html

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    • student says:

      I wish someone would put dissertation abstracts on-line. I would like to look at two. 1) by Joseph Bensman (sociology) and 2) Alfred Jones (psychology). I believe in credit paid where credit is due. And I owe these guys a lot. I think they knew me well enough to know that I would honor their memories- as it should be. If anyone has the wherewithall to put their dissertations on line, I would appreciate it. Thanks.

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      • prediction? says:

        I am not predicting anything, anymore except the immediate fact of the moment that I am getting back to my work.

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  6. Rishav Bista says:

    David Card

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  7. António Cebola says:

    Jean Tirole.

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