Kentucky Derby 2012
Every year I post Kentucky Derby picks.
Every year they turn out to be terrible.
Every year I vow I will not embarrass myself again next year.
Every year two or three loyal readers email me and ask why I didn’t post my picks this year, so then I post picks after all.
So, against my better judgment, here they are.
My best bet this year is a semi-long shot called Take Charge Indy. He should go off at about 12-1. According to my algorithm, he is the only horse out of twenty in the race who is a positive expected value bet in the win pool.
I’d take a horse called I’ll Have Another to place. He’s a long shot also.
To show, I like Bodemeister, who will be one of the favorites.
And no set of picks would be complete without a prediction as to which horse will finish last: Daddy Long Legs.
With any luck, I won’t be writing a follow-up post on Monday congratulating the owner of Daddy Long Legs.