Fact: Human beings love to predict the future.
Fact: Human beings are not very good at predicting the future.
Fact: Because the incentives to predict are quite imperfect -- bad predictions are rarely punished -- this situation is unlikely to change.
But wouldn't it be nice if it did?
That is the gist of our latest Freakonomics Radio podcast, called "The Folly of Prediction." This is the fourth of five hour-long podcasts we’ve been releasing recently. Some of you may have heard them on public-radio stations around the country, but now all the hours are being fed into our podcast stream. (You can download/subscribe at iTunes, get the RSS feed, listen live via the media player above, or read the transcript here.)