Did the Tea Party Help or Hurt the Republicans?

Is the Tea Party responsible for yesterday's election results? Probably. But perhaps not in the way you were thinking.

Journalists have written thousands of pages describing the anger, fury or excitement of the Tea Party. But this isn't how an economist would approach the question. Perhaps the single deepest idea in economics is the opportunity cost principle. And so it is worth asking: What is the opportunity cost of an active Tea Party movement? To figure this out, you need to ask, "or what?"

Yet One More Way in Which D.C. Is Like High School?

Happy Election Day, everyone! Please don't read this before you vote.

And then don't read this either. It's a paper by Lauren Cohen and Christopher Malloy, both of Harvard Business School, and it's called "Friends in High Places."

Predicting the Outcome of Tomorrow's Midterm Election

The first academic paper I ever published was an empirical analysis of the "midterm gap" in American politics. (I couldn't find an ungated version, but it's not really worth reading anyway!)

Predicting the Midterm Elections: A Freakonomics Quorum

This year's midterm elections promise to be a bit more eventful than usual, with predictions of seismic change in Congress and in many statehouses, most of it in a blue-to-red direction. But predictions aren't elections; and even if the predictions hold true, what happens next?

Biden's Prediction: Inside Information or Pure Bluster?

Vice President Joe Biden says he's willing to place a bet that Democrats will retain their majorities in the House and Senate. But is that a smart idea?