Archives for Nate Silver

Let Teams Choose Their NCAA Bracket Position

Nate Silver has (another) truly insightful post demonstrating the possible perverse advantage of receiving an 11th seed instead of an 8th seed in the NCAA tournament.

He explains: “[An average] team like Arizona would have a considerably better chance — about two-and-a-half times better, in fact — of winning its second round game and advancing to the Round of 16 as a No. 12 seed than as a No. 8 or No. 9 seed. This, of course, is because it has not yet had to face the No. 1 seed.” Read More »

Detecting Political Momentum Is Harder Than You Think

Over at, Nate Silver has a post attempting to debunk the idea that there is momentum in political campaigns. But I think he’s wrong. And his post provides a fun opportunity for a simple statistics lesson on the difficulty of discovering momentum. Read More »

You Willing to Put Money on That?

Over at, Nate Silver challenged bloggers to stand behind their beliefs on climate change by wagering money and risk shaming by Silver if they back out. No takers. Read More »

Is Legal Same-Sex Marriage Inevitable?

| Polling guru Nate Silver has built a regression model, based on demographic and political trends, to forecast when a majority of the voting public in each of the 50 states might vote against a gay-marriage ban, or vote to repeal an existing one. His findings: by 2016, most states will have legalized gay marriage, […] Read More »

FREAK-Quently Asked Questions: Nate Silver

Nate Silver is the proprietor of, where his statistical wizardry (and common sense) during the recent elections made him the biggest new political star after a certain family named Obama.

He didn’t do quite so well on the Oscars but, really, do we care? Read More »