Archives for prediction markets



A Prediction Market Trading Pit for the Digital Age: A Guest Post From David Pennock

David Pennock is one of the smartest guys I know. As a scientist at Yahoo! Research, he’s on the bleeding edge of computer scientists working at the interface with economics. His latest project, called Predictalot, is an amazing new prediction market which allows people to trade on the millions of possible outcomes of the Sweet Sixteen. It’s a brilliant example of just why economists are going to have to get cozy with computer scientists. And David has generously agreed to provide a guest post describing what he’s up to. (And if you want more, he writes the always-interesting Oddhead Blog). Read More »



Middle East Despot Watch

I’ve been watching developments in the Middle East and Northern Africa closely. It can be hard to keep track of it all. Fortunately, the prediction markets at InTrade provide a useful barometer. Read More »



Witches to Be Held Accountable for Bad Predictions; Why Only Them?

In Romania, life has gotten even harder for practicing witches, as spelled out in a recent A.P. article: “A month after Romanian authorities began taxing them for their trade, the country’s soothsayers and fortune tellers are cursing a new bill that threatens fines or even prison if their predictions don’t come true.” Read More »



Wedding-Driven Markets

The engagement of Prince William and Kate Middleton has thrilled tabloid newspapers around the world, but the effects may be more far-reaching than you realize. Read More »



Caricaturing Economists

I was at the Legg Mason Thought Leader Forum last week, talking about my research over recent years on prediction markets. It was good fun, but the real novelty was that as I was speaking – literally, in real time – there was a cartoonist next to the stage, cartooning my talk on a five-foot-wide poster. I’ve never seen this before, but it was a real hit. Read More »



If You Can Bet on the Rain, Watch out for Rainmakers

A few days ago, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange began selling futures contracts on rain. As this Marketplace report points out, the Merc – best known for selling agricultural commodities and futures – “already sells futures for temperature, frost, snow – even hurricanes.” Read More »



How to Become an Insta-Expert: A Confession

Using the prediction markets to become an insta-expert in just about anything. Read More »



Prediction Markets vs. Super Crunching: Which Can Better Predict How Justice Kennedy Will Vote?

One of the great unresolved questions of predictive analytics is trying to figure out when prediction markets will produce better predictions than good old-fashion mining of historic data. I think that there is fairly good evidence that either approach tends to beat the statistically unaided predictions of traditional experts. Read More »