Thankfully, No One Pays Attention
Thankfully, no one pays attention to my annual Kentucky Derby picks, because if they did, they would have read this prediction that I made Friday:
If I had to pick a last-place finisher (a bet they would never actually offer at the track because people involved with horse racing understand better than most that people respond to incentives), it would be Mine That Bird.
And then they would read this headline in The Boston Globe‘s Sunday’s sports page:
But it gets worse before it gets better. I named five horses that I did like. One of these horses finished dead last out of 18 horses, another finished next to last!
The other three finished respectably: third, fourth, and tenth.
In light of this showing, will there be any demand for my Preakness picks? I think so. You see, when it comes to predictions, there is as much value in someone who can predict as poorly as I do as there is in someone who predicts the truth. You just take the bad predictor’s picks and do the opposite.