Massachusetts Senate Race Update

In the last couple of hours, the InTrade prediction markets have moved sharply in favor of the Republican candidate Scott Brown to defeat Martha Coakley in the Massachusetts Senate race. The shift is too recent to reflect pre-election polls, so it’s likely on-the-ground scuttlebutt, leaked exit polls, or, well, misdirection. (Don’t forget there was a similar move toward John Kerry at about the same time on election day 2004.)

As Drudge would say: Developing…


Capo

Whether "rumors are shifting the Intrade Predictions" or not is irrelevant -- the rumors may be a better predictor than the polls. Pete is right: the only relevant poll is the actual vote count.
So where can we, the impatient, look for a good prediction, irrelevant though it may be?
I assert that MY prediction will correctly name the winner, and to satiate your need for immediate gratification, my prediction is...

BROWN by a 13 pt margin

eb

There are no exit polls. There is no Rasmussen exit poll. There are no network exit polls. No polls. Got it?

DC2NM

There are no exit polls. So there is nothing to leak. Its all just pure speculation.

Eric Gouvin

Someone should dissect the futures trading once this election is in the books. These markets are unregulated and could be subject to manipulation by a concerted effort to create a "buzz." It has happened a couple of times before, but proved to by unsustainable over the long run. A concerted effort at manipulation on election day by folks who don't care if they end up in the money could go uncorrected for the course of the day and convey the impression that a candidate has got some mojo going. Just a thought.

Christy

Maybe, if Brown pulls this off, the elected officials across this country who feel entitled, above the rest of us and invincible will sit up and take notice. This is a big election year, and as far as I'm concerned, for the vast majority of these folks who have been pillaging and plundering our country for decades they need to go. Yes we can - kick them to the curb.

Tim

This country is so afraid of change. The bottom line, healthcare will SAVE money over time if done correctly. There's not much more Obama can do about jobs because the republicans added over 7 TRILLION to the debt during the Reagan years. Bush senior got it right by raising taxes to keep the deficit in check, too bad his son failed basic math.

Tes Kennedy and Strom Thurman are a good case for term limits.

John

Even if there are no exit polls, it's still possible to get reliable data. I covered elections for several years in both MO and KS. They start counting ballots early in the afternoon, so that the count can be completed as early as possible. When ballots are brought in and counted a running tally is posted by district, with the percentages posted alongside.

Tim

Sorry, meant during the BUSH years "W"

Eric

Very insightful Barth....... there IS no exit polling in this election. I can tell somebody has been paying a lot of attention to what's really going on...

Ron Bush

Why is it that exit polls, prediction markets or commentators are mistrusted, "dangerous" or in need of investigation if they do not reflect favorably upon the Democrat Machine?

Jen

I think a Brown win will restore a checks and balances government that we should have implemented. I'm with Christy though... no government official is invincible or better! They are elected to serve the best interest of the people... NOT their campaign contributors! Republican or Democrat, you can kiss your "position" goodbye if you don't do your job.

Bill

All these programs are for the ease of more corruption. We ( I ) can't and never will trust ANYONE who LIE, CHEATS and STEALS. All state and federal governments have been and will proceed their dirty tricks on taxpayers accounts as long as they think we are galvanized about their actions. We need term limits and JAIL. Lets VOTE THEM ALL OUT! 2010

Odd

The right is grasping at straws. If she loses it has nothing to do with Obama and everything to do with her horrible campaign.

Ron

Difficult to believe that after the 8 year reign of fiscal irresponsibility, the Iraq civil war, and local disasters (Katrina et al), the media portrays Brown - the Republican candidate who refuses to print his party affiliation - as some kind of reformer and protector of the american public weal. Funny if were not so serious. If elected he will help keep prosperity where he and the Republicans want it . . . . on Wall street and with those who put personal greed above country.

Roger

You have learned exactly NOTHING from the DEVASTATION wrought by the Conservative "Revolution."

Perhaps Obama should have forced you to face its consequences by cancelling the bailouts and stimulus, and allowing economic IMPLOSION.

THEN, by Jove, there would have been REAL CHANGE in this long-suffering, benighted country!!

We might have seen a second-a genuine-REVOLUTION!!

As it is, you are still determined to sell your very souls to Mammon, to Profit at Any Price.

The "PUS of idols flows through your veins."

You betray the Common Welfare.

You will reap the whirlwind.

The nation will fail.

And there will be NO ONE to blame-but YOURSELVES.

al sullivan

What's the point. The health care industry will tie up the new laws in legal battles forever anyway. Obama should just have sat back and let the whole thing go to pot, and then blame the healthcare industry. As it is, we're all going to suffer anyway and the Republicans can now blame the democrats when it is really that insane tea party that is to blame.

A Republican from Salisbury, MA

I am a Republican and I did not vote today. I just don't like
scott brown, a typical working poor Caucasian drive a truck with over 200.000 milies on it. Vast majority of working poor Caucasians are going to support Obama sooner or
later, Scott Brown is a working poor Caucasian, he is not
real Republican.

Keenan

I've heard people complain that the president isn't doing enough about jobs and the economy more than once. Do people not realize that healthcare is wrapped up in all of that? Medicare is set to run out of money in less than 7 years and start eating away at the national budget. This is something that should have been addressed earlier but at the very least NEEDS to be addressed now.

Let's not forget that Obama did not create all of these problems, he is just trying to patch the holes in the sinking ship he inherited. For a political party that claims to want the government out of their lives, republicans sure do complain a lot about what the President isn't doing for their jobs. I think he's doing what you people want him to do, and letting the market decide....

Roger

Well, what can you expect of a nation that let at least 17,000 poor children die without healthcare insurance under the GOD-FEARING, FAMILY-VALUES GOP while it showered the rich in tax cuts worth TRILLIONS??

Go ahead: turn things over to the Republicans and let them finish destroying the country.

Get on your knees where you belong, America, licking corporate boots and kissing corporate backside!

While you're at it, why not strip the children of the working poor of their healthcare the way it was under the GOP thugs?? I'm sure the rich are running short of fun money for cocaine and sex workers.

Just let poor kids die the way you used to.

There is such a thing as Divine Retribution: the country's just punishment is only beginning.

(1 of 2)

dan

thank god yes god our country is starting to understand this is not change we can believe in!!!!