Predicting the Nobel Prize

Next Monday, the Nobel Prize Committee will announce the recipient(s) of the 2011 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences.  If you think you know who’s going to score this year’s prize, head on over to Harvard’s Nobel Pool, “the world’s most accurate prediction market.”

Each entry will cost you $1; all entries and bets must be received by 11:59 PM on Sunday, October 9th. If you’re looking for inspiration, past predictions can be found here. And if you haven’t already, listen to our Freakonomics Radio podcast, “The Folly of Predictions,” to find out where we stand on the whole notion of predictions.

So Freakonomics readers, who are you betting on?

Mike B

When is someone going to put together the money to get a Math/Computer Science/Information Science category added to the Nobel Roster? If economists can get in there Math folk are just as deserving.


I don't know when it will happen, but I will nominate Donald Ervin Knuth to be the first recipient.

Mike B

They should have about 10-20 recipients the first year to make up for lost time.


But where are the predictions for this year? This market isn't predicting anything yet. Show me the share percentages.

Eric M. Jones.

Economic Sciences...?

If you review the list of previous winners, you will see that these guys (no women yet) are known strictly for their convincing and perhaps glib arguments. There is not now, has not been, and perhaps cannot ever be any real science of economics.

There is certainly a History of Economics, but the fundamental precept of science is that science not only explains what is happening or has happened, but it predicts what will happen (i.e. establishes mechanismus).

This is why Freudian psychology has been tossed on the trash heap along with astrology, parapsychology, religion, etc.

Kenneth Otton

Actually, a woman has already won the Nobel prize in Economics. L2research?

`red' robin

you guys got me into Nobel watching- The `true' answer is "NO ONE." There is no Nobel prize in economics. I do my homework.


There has been a female winner: Elinor Ostrom, last year. Who, BTW, is a political scientist not an economist. And here are several hypothesis about why there is not a Nobel for Math:

The Regular Joe

I should get the Nobel prize for this article


I wish someone would put dissertation abstracts on-line. I would like to look at two. 1) by Joseph Bensman (sociology) and 2) Alfred Jones (psychology). I believe in credit paid where credit is due. And I owe these guys a lot. I think they knew me well enough to know that I would honor their memories- as it should be. If anyone has the wherewithall to put their dissertations on line, I would appreciate it. Thanks.


I am not predicting anything, anymore except the immediate fact of the moment that I am getting back to my work.

Rishav Bista

David Card

António Cebola

Jean Tirole.