Kentucky Derby 2012

Every year I post Kentucky Derby picks.

Every year they turn out to be terrible.

Every year I vow I will not embarrass myself again next year.

Every year two or three loyal readers email me and ask why I didn’t post my picks this year, so then I post picks after all.

So, against my better judgment, here they are.

My best bet this year is a semi-long shot called Take Charge Indy.  He should go off at about 12-1.  According to my algorithm, he is the only horse out of twenty in the race who is a positive expected value bet in the win pool.

I’d take a horse called I’ll Have Another to place.  He’s a long shot also.

To show, I like Bodemeister, who will be one of the favorites.

And no set of picks would be complete without a prediction as to which horse will finish last: Daddy Long Legs.

With any luck, I won’t be writing a follow-up post on Monday congratulating the owner of Daddy Long Legs.


When they can't even make a show about horse racing without leading to the deaths of a few horses, I just can't get into the real thing.


Not bad this year!



Caleb b


Despite my usual frugalness, I've found alcohol to be the best bet. I always win when I put my money on booze.

Eric M. Jones.

Steven, so that's your financial planning tip?

There's a Gamblers Anonymous meeting at 8:00 tonight in the church basement. We'll swing by and pick you up.

Sonoran Horse

WOW you're good! I was hoping for Creative Cause to at least show but I guess I was wrong.

Though Take Charge Indy didn't place so well (he placed 19th), I'll Have Another and Bodemeister were first and second, and as you predicted, Daddy Long Legs finished like 5 lengths behind everybody. Last.

I hope you tell us what you are going to pick for the Preakness.


Haha. Its not a financial planning tip - its a Kentucky Derby bet. The title is a clue, but the first line provides confirmation. Reading comprehension is a life skill. If you get confused, just sound it out nice and slow.

My trifecta ticket consisted of the 1st, 3rd, 4th and 5th place finishers. My algorithm was so solid this year - except I tossed in my "horse sense" at the last minute and told myself that Trinniberg will go to the lead, Bodemeister will get drawn into the suicide pace and will fall back at the turn. My $48 bet would have become $3200 if Bode just ran the way he was supposed to!

Neil (SM)

Humor detector?

caleb b

I placed too much emphasis on the post position this year. In the last 37 years, no horse has won from the 19 post or the 6 post. So, I despite the fact that I’ll Have Another ran the fastest time at 1 1/16 mile, and the 3rd fastest time at 1 1/8, I didn’t peg him as the winner because of the 19th post position.

I liked Bodemeister because of his good speed, but mainly his great jockey and trainer. Again though, the 6th post was a bad sign, so I stayed away.

Dullahan is the horse I went with, given that he had late speed, and great everything else. I look for him to do as well in the Preakness.

Given that post position is now assigned randomly for the Derby, I wonder how much of the position will even matter (aside from the 1 hole, which is just too close to the rail for comfort).


To quote Meatloaf, "two out of three ain't bad."


I backed I'll Have Another at 14/1

Ann H.

My daughter and I chose Take Charge Indy as well, but purely for the emotional reason that he is a first cousin to her horse. He'll be having surgery Monday for the bone chip he suffered during the race. Luckily, he is expected to recover well.

Without the injury though, you might have been dead-on. Calvin had Indy well-positioned to go to the front when he sensed something wrong and pulled him up.

Which is why horse racing is such a freaky thing--things like that can happen at any time, to any horse.

David Barranco

Great Picks. I owe you a whiskey.

Golfer dan

I wish I had seen this site a few weeks ago..The way I bet I'd have $ 98 K in my pocket today. When you get 2 out of 4 for a SUPER bet it only cost $1600