Looking for a Long Shot: My Belmont Predictions

Over Analyze

I whiffed on the Kentucky Derby and caught lightning in a bottle at the Preakness.

Let’s see if I can do it again.

All eyes are on Orb and Oxbow, the winners of the first two legs of the Triple Crown.  Those two horses are likely to be heavy betting favorites in the Belmont.  And according to my model, they look okay, but not attractive at the odds they will go off at.


Instead, my numbers suggest a trio of long shots are the place to put your money: Palace Malice, Overanalyze, and Golden Soul.  Each of those horses should pay about 15-1 if they were to pull off an upset victory.

Palace Malice

There are three other long shots I would not touch with a ten-foot pole: Midnight Taboo, Giant Finish, and Incognito.

(Images are courtesy of my friends at DerbyJackpot.com, where you can watch live races and place bets, all totally legally) 

Eric M. Jones

The winning lotto numbers are: 3, 19, 20, 33, 42, 49

Mark Jackson

Seems like the analysis panned out! Great job two weeks in a row!

Caleb B

What for Freedom Child to finish at least 3rd....the Belmont loves letting NY horses finish high.


Nice prediction! I was wondering how you determined Palace Malice, Overanalyze, and Golden Soul to be your picks for a long shot? And same thing for the ones to stay away from?


Nicely done! I'll be keeping an eye out for your picks next year!

Lance R

Thanks for the tip Steven, I was able to turn $50 into $286.

Jordan Sickman

Wish I'd remembered to check the blog before betting!