Is Too Much Attention Paid to Small InTrade Contracts?
…the contract’s inception, a tiny amount even by prediction market standards (compare that to the over $3.8 million that had been traded as of the same date for “Hillary Clinton…
In which we argue that failure should not only be tolerated but celebrated.
…the contract’s inception, a tiny amount even by prediction market standards (compare that to the over $3.8 million that had been traded as of the same date for “Hillary Clinton…
…predictions, I will gladly join the throng. Until then: no deal. InTrade is an example of a prediction market that punishes bad predictions. Unfortunately, participation is voluntary. Wouldn’t it be…
…one), an online prediction market that uses crowd-sourcing to forecast the likelihood of a drug’s success. Introduced last month, the market has invited biomedical researchers and other drug industry experts…
…make trades. Q. It appears to me that prediction markets such as Intrade are continuing to grow, so I’m assuming that the insight that one can get from them is…
…context where the prediction markets have been very successful. It doesn’t seem like Intrade.com covered the show (why?). But realitymarkets.com showed David Archuleta to have a commanding lead even after…
…prediction markets, and his own econometric model for forecasting elections. The Strömberg model is, in my view, the leading quantitative election-forecasting model — both parsimonious and sophisticated. By building up…
…that election forecasting is a difficult business, and that we should take uncertainty seriously.? The prediction markets agree. But this lesson doesn’t sit well among the pundit classes.? It’s not…
…explore the effectiveness of techniques such as prediction markets, probability elicitation, training, incentives and aggregation that the research literature suggests offer some hope of helping forecasters see further and more…
The U.S. president is often called the “leader of the free world.” But if you ask an economist or a Constitutional scholar how much the occupant of the Oval Office…
The U.S. president is often called the “leader of the free world.” But if you ask an economist or a Constitutional scholar how much the occupant of the Oval Office…
…time that optimistic news about a biofuel “that might help save the planet” appeared on this blog. Maybe it is time for the prediction market at PopSci.com to add a…
…spend tonight watching the ticker from political prediction markets a lot more closely than I’ll be watching the talking heads. Think of the market as distributed computing: Traders around the…
…fun application of prediction markets.? By quickly scanning the latest market prices, I managed to become an insta-expert.? In fact, I managed to become such an insta-expert that I’ll be…
Data scientist Nate Silver gained attention for his election predictions. But even the best prognosticators get it wrong sometimes. He talks to Steve about making good decisions with data, why…
…will “out-predict” official Bank of England predictions. “If these markets catch on, the government should consider outsourcing all of its forecasts to prediction markets instead of expert forecasters,” he said….
On the InTrade prediction market site, John Edwards has fallen behind the undeclared Al Gore. Here is Edwards’s recent price chart: And here is Gore’s: Note how far Gore has…
…from Netflix’s $1 million challenge. The next wave in fantasy sports sites. “The Best New Gadget You’ll Never Hear Of.” (Earlier) New prediction market ranks predictors against each other. (Earlier)…
…of philanthropy on his blog. Dubner wrote previously about Furst’s new prediction market “Truth Markets.” Furst has also contributed to this blog on the subject of why there are so…
…surprised to hear that I will be following the race on the political prediction markets at Intrade.com. Put simply, I’m willing to declare the winner as being whichever candidate sees…
…science than women? (HT: Odd Numbers) Strange food tattoo fails to save owner’s restaurant. Working the night shift linked to cancer. (Earlier) New prediction market focuses on software products. (Earlier)…
…political markets, with the goal described as follows: “If a single prediction market is wiser than the pundits and the polls, imagine how wise all the prediction markets are together.”…
…year’s prize, head on over to Harvard’s Nobel Pool, “the world’s most accurate prediction market.” Each entry will cost you $1; all entries and bets must be received by 11:59…
…prediction market that tells you your probability of success. But a similar result could be achieved with what Abramowicz and I call “Ex post” or “Wager” auction implementations.? These alternative…
I’ve been watching developments in the Middle East and Northern Africa closely.? It can be hard to keep track of it all.? Fortunately, the prediction markets at?InTrade provide a useful…
…Indiana, it’s tempting to call Tuesday’s primary vote a split decision. Instead, political prediction markets have declared Senator Obama a clear winner. Senator Obama began Election Day rated a 76…
…argue that political prediction markets can help us understand which candidates actually exceeded pre-poll expectations. Some simple observations: Clinton‘s 9.5 point victory margin was roughly what one might expect from…
A few days ago, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange began selling futures contracts on rain. As this Marketplace report points out, the Merc – best known for selling agricultural commodities and…
A question for the baseball experts: has any team in history ever been as bad as the A’s were early in the season and done as well as they are…
…He’s also the former CEO of Scott Adams Foods, Inc., known for such nutritious creations as the Dilberito. In a blog post yesterday about the new prediction market Predictify, I…