Search the Site

Search Results for: "prediction market"

Episode 169

Failure Is Your Friend

In which we argue that failure should not only be tolerated but celebrated.



How to Streamline Drug Research?

…one), an online prediction market that uses crowd-sourcing to forecast the likelihood of a drug’s success. Introduced last month, the market has invited biomedical researchers and other drug industry experts…




What’s the Best Way to Predict American Idol?

…context where the prediction markets have been very successful. It doesn’t seem like Intrade.com covered the show (why?). But realitymarkets.com showed David Archuleta to have a commanding lead even after…



Election ’08: Markets and Models

prediction markets, and his own econometric model for forecasting elections. The Strömberg model is, in my view, the leading quantitative election-forecasting model — both parsimonious and sophisticated. By building up…




Calling All Predictors to a New Forecasting Tournament

…explore the effectiveness of techniques such as prediction markets, probability elicitation, training, incentives and aggregation that the research literature suggests offer some hope of helping forecasters see further and more…



Episode 11

How Much Does the President Really Matter? (Replay)

The U.S. president is often called the “leader of the free world.” But if you ask an economist or a Constitutional scholar how much the occupant of the Oval Office…

Episode 11

How Much Does the President Really Matter?

The U.S. president is often called the “leader of the free world.” But if you ask an economist or a Constitutional scholar how much the occupant of the Oval Office…

Will This Weed Really ‘Save Humanity’?

…time that optimistic news about a biofuel “that might help save the planet” appeared on this blog. Maybe it is time for the prediction market at PopSci.com to add a…



Super Tuesday Viewer’s Guide: A Guest Post

…spend tonight watching the ticker from political prediction markets a lot more closely than I’ll be watching the talking heads. Think of the market as distributed computing: Traders around the…



How to Become an Insta-Expert: A Confession

…fun application of prediction markets.? By quickly scanning the latest market prices, I managed to become an insta-expert.? In fact, I managed to become such an insta-expert that I’ll be…



Episode 117

Nate Silver Says We’re Bad at Making Predictions

Data scientist Nate Silver gained attention for his election predictions. But even the best prognosticators get it wrong sometimes. He talks to Steve about making good decisions with data, why…

Try Your Hand at Economic Forecasting

…will “out-predict” official Bank of England predictions. “If these markets catch on, the government should consider outsourcing all of its forecasts to prediction markets instead of expert forecasters,” he said….




The FREAK-est Links

…from Netflix’s $1 million challenge. The next wave in fantasy sports sites. “The Best New Gadget You’ll Never Hear Of.” (Earlier) New prediction market ranks predictors against each other. (Earlier)…




Watching the Democratic Races

…surprised to hear that I will be following the race on the political prediction markets at Intrade.com. Put simply, I’m willing to declare the winner as being whichever candidate sees…



The FREAK-est Links

…science than women? (HT: Odd Numbers) Strange food tattoo fails to save owner’s restaurant. Working the night shift linked to cancer. (Earlier) New prediction market focuses on software products. (Earlier)…



The FREAKest Links: The Furry Reaper Edition

…political markets, with the goal described as follows: “If a single prediction market is wiser than the pundits and the polls, imagine how wise all the prediction markets are together.”…



Predicting the Nobel Prize

…year’s prize, head on over to Harvard’s Nobel Pool, “the world’s most accurate prediction market.” Each entry will cost you $1; all entries and bets must be received by 11:59…



Selling My Addiction

prediction market that tells you your probability of success. But a similar result could be achieved with what Abramowicz and I call “Ex post” or “Wager” auction implementations.? These alternative…



Middle East Despot Watch

I’ve been watching developments in the Middle East and Northern Africa closely.? It can be hard to keep track of it all.? Fortunately, the prediction markets at?InTrade provide a useful…



Parsing the Indiana and North Carolina Primaries

…Indiana, it’s tempting to call Tuesday’s primary vote a split decision. Instead, political prediction markets have declared Senator Obama a clear winner. Senator Obama began Election Day rated a 76…



Scoring the Pennsylvania Primary

…argue that political prediction markets can help us understand which candidates actually exceeded pre-poll expectations. Some simple observations: Clinton‘s 9.5 point victory margin was roughly what one might expect from…




I concede on the A’s

A question for the baseball experts: has any team in history ever been as bad as the A’s were early in the season and done as well as they are…