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The Latest Data: Yes, It’s a Recession

…challenge the view that we are in the midst of a “great moderation,” in which the business cycle has been tamed? 4) The chances of a recession, according to Intrade.com,…




FREAK-est Links

What’s next in public transportation? Urban gondolas? The most expensive textbook ever. Osama Bin Laden on InTrade: you could have made a fortune. Maybe. Someone actually yelled “Stop the Presses”…



Massachusetts Senate Race Update

In the last couple of hours, the InTrade prediction markets have moved sharply in favor of the Republican candidate Scott Brown to defeat Martha Coakley in the Massachusetts Senate race….




Is Eye Color the Key to the White House?

Despite Fred Thompson‘s so-so performance in his first presidential debate, and despite his serious lag on InTrade (Giuliani, 39; Romney, 24; Thompson, 19.5), the blogger Noele Kensut is calling for…



The FREAK-est Links

Album sales hit new lows in 2007. (Earlier) New InTrade markets predict the effects candidates may have on economic matters. Is this pollster luckier than everyone, or just better? Study…




Looking to Play a Cheap Democratic Long Shot?

…far, Brooks’s enthusiasm hasn’t caught on, at least among the betting public as represented at InTrade, which accepts wagers on political campaigns and other sports. Richardson is still extremely cheap:…




What Do You Have to Say About Ron Paul?

…highly electable … in a country other than the U.S. Estonia, maybe. (As for his odds of winning quadrupling: indeed they have, as evidenced on InTrade also — from 0.2%…




Predicting the Midterm Elections: A Freakonomics Quorum

…seriously.? InTrade says that the Dems are only a?one-in-eight to retain control, while uber-pundit?Nate Silver says there’s only a?one-in-five chance they retain control.? And Nate is?telling anyone who will listen…




Episode 11

How Much Does the President Really Matter? (Replay)

The U.S. president is often called the “leader of the free world.” But if you ask an economist or a Constitutional scholar how much the occupant of the Oval Office…

Episode 11

How Much Does the President Really Matter?

The U.S. president is often called the “leader of the free world.” But if you ask an economist or a Constitutional scholar how much the occupant of the Oval Office…