What’s the Secret to Making a Great Prediction? (NSQ Ep. 53)
Also: how do you recover from a bad day?
* * *
Relevant Research & References
Here’s where you can learn more about the people and ideas in this episode:
- Philip Tetlock, professor of psychology at the University of Pennsylvania.
- Daniel Kahneman, professor of psychology at Princeton University.
- Barbara Mellers, professor of psychology at the University of Pennsylvania.
- Richard Pine, Angela’s literary agent and co-founder of Inkwell Management.
- Katy Milkman, professor of behavioral economics at the University of Pennsylvania.
- How to Change: The Science of Getting from Where You Are to Where You Want to Be, by Katy Milkman (2021).
- “This Self-Made Billionaire Failed the LSAT Twice, Then Sold Fax Machines for 7 Years Before Hitting Big — Here’s How She Got There,” by Gillian Zoe Segal (CNBC, 2019).
- Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner (2015).
- Thinking, Fast and Slow, by Daniel Kahneman (2011).
- “Economics – The Promise of Prediction Markets,” by Kenneth Arrow, Robert Forsythe, Michael Gorham, and Robert Hahn (Science, 2008).
- Your Erroneous Zones: Step-by-Step Advice for Escaping the Trap of Negative Thinking and Taking Control of Your Life, by Wayne Dyer (1976).
- “Are You Ready for a Fresh Start? (Ep. 455),” by Freakonomics Radio (2021).
- “How to Be Less Terrible at Predicting the Future (Ep. 233),” by Freakonomics Radio (2016).
- “The Folly of Prediction (Ep. 41),” by Freakonomics Radio (2011).