Is Legal Same-Sex Marriage Inevitable?

| Polling guru Nate Silver has built a regression model, based on demographic and political trends, to forecast when a majority of the voting public in each of the 50 states might vote against a gay-marriage ban, or vote to repeal an existing one. His findings: by 2016, most states will have legalized gay marriage, with Mississippi alone holding on until 2024. His analysis is loaded with caveats but, in light of the Iowa Supreme Court’s ruling against the state’s gay-marriage ban, raises an interesting question: is legal same-sex marriage inevitable? [%comments]

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  1. George Brabazon says:

    I do not think Nate was claiming that it would be legalized by 2016, only that a majority of voters in those states would support it in a polling question in 2016.

    A small, but significant difference.

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  2. DrS says:

    Most important thing he points out is that young people are overwhelmingly for it, and old people are overwhelmingly against it. This does not always mean the liberals have a lock on the future, since a lot of people revert to the parents views once they themselves become married and have kids; however, it’s a pretty significant trend.

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  3. sram says:

    I think sometime before that at least one state will get out of legalizing the marriage business. The state will stop issuing marriage licenses and will only issue monogamous civil union licenses. The individuals then have to find a church that would marry them.

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  4. Steve says:

    I’d say it is inevitable, because A) it seems to have momentum, B) builds on existing social changes, C) when the world economy is falling apart stopping two guys from getting married is less of a worry.

    I’d go as far to say that someday, someone will do a thesis on C).

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  5. Mio says:

    “when the world economy is falling apart stopping two guys from getting married is less of a worry.”

    Same goes for gals.

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  6. Mike says:

    Hmmm, let me look outside to see if the sky has fallen yet in Canada.


    It’s inevitable.

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  7. Jeffrey says:

    Even young folks opposed just don’t care that much. They fall into the yeah-I’m-opposed-but-I-won’t-put-up-a-fight-if-two-dudes-wanna-make-out category of politics.

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  8. Paul says:

    Let’s hope it is inevitable. This discrimination is an embarrassment to the country, just like slavery and segregation.

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