Is Legal Same-Sex Marriage Inevitable?

| Polling guru Nate Silver has built a regression model, based on demographic and political trends, to forecast when a majority of the voting public in each of the 50 states might vote against a gay-marriage ban, or vote to repeal an existing one. His findings: by 2016, most states will have legalized gay marriage, with Mississippi alone holding on until 2024. His analysis is loaded with caveats but, in light of the Iowa Supreme Court’s ruling against the state’s gay-marriage ban, raises an interesting question: is legal same-sex marriage inevitable? [%comments]

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  1. a_c says:

    why are gays intent on getting married? The answer is, they are not. In places where gay marriage has been available for years, Gays don’t get married. Toronto has had gay marriage for years, and through 2008 only one gay couple has been married. Last year, only 107 gay marriages have been performed.

    Gays, in fact do not want to get married. Very few of them actually do, in places where gay marriage has been legal for some time. Gays are notoriously promiscuous, and promiscuity is incompatible with the traditional notions of marriage. Rather, as Stanley Kurtz has argued in National Review Online, Gays wish to use cultural arguments (mostly through television and movies) and legal ones to collapse traditional culture and specifically, the nuclear family. Which is viewed quite naturally as the enemy of gay culture (it is).

    Classical Greece honored, or even revered, homosexual love above that between men and women, yet it had absolutely no inclination to establish same sex marrage. Indeed Plato discussed this issue at some length, making the observation that marriage was a sacred bond that was intended to preserve the culture. It can hardly be said of the Greeks that they eschewed same sex marriage out of some prejudice against homosexuals. So what was their reasoning?

    Marriage is about child raising… and passing on values and capacities to new “human starts” (as R.B. Fuller called them). The notion of same-sex marriage would have simply seemed silly to the Greeks. What would be the point?

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  2. David Baker says:

    One thing I think he has wrong is his analysis of Utah. I don’t think that Silver took into account that the prevalence of Mormons in Utah is a stronger holdout than the evangelicals of Mississippi. This is not to say that I hope that I am wrong and that his stats are right. Being a Gay Mormon in Utah, I sure hope that I am wrong.

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  3. thomasAlex says:

    “I do not think Nate was claiming that it would be legalized by 2016, only that a majority of voters in those states would support it in a polling question in 2016.”

    Someone cannot read. It says by 2016. Do not try to interpret what you think the reader should have meant, by what he did mean.

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  4. J says:

    I’m totally for this, however, whatever happened to church and state separation? Hopefully we’ll progress even past marriage to something not based on a bartering off of daughters and land.

    But year projection on that….? Incalculable.

    With gay jokes still mainstream and gay bashings still not covered by the media, I’d hardly say that any age group “just don’t care that much”.

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  5. Vin says:

    I don’t think a country that votes on basis of whether or not the things written in a Book are words of God or not could go anywhere in long term.. and I don’t think this country (US) has that trend overall… so I believe it’s inevitable after all…

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  6. Jennifer mitchell says:

    Let’s all hope so.

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  7. Dick says:


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  8. the Gooch says:

    Marriage is devoid of any meaning to most people. so they feel fine allowing others to put whatever meaning in it they so choose.

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