I’m not sure why, since I don’t think anyone should or does care, but every year I indulge myself by posting Kentucky Derby picks.
In contrast to the last two years, my computer model has some strong predictions for this year’s Derby. The two horses I like best from a betting perspective (i.e. the ones I think actually have a positive expected value if you place a win bet on them) are General Quarters and Papa Clem. Both are long shots, with morning-line odds of 20-1, but my model predicts their actual odds will be lower than this.
There are other horses who look pretty good too, although not strong enough to yield a positive expected value on a bet: Friesan Fire, Musket Man, and Flying Private.
The favorite, I Want Revenge, looks O.K. also, but not good
enough to bet.
If I had to pick a last-place finisher (a bet they would never actually offer at the track because people involved with horse racing understand better than most that people respond to incentives), it would be Mine That Bird.