You Willing to Put Money on That?

Over at FiveThirtyEight.com, Nate Silver challenged bloggers to stand behind their beliefs on climate change by wagering money and risk shaming by Silver if they back out. No takers. (HT: Andrew Sullivan) [%comments]

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  1. WF says:

    I like the idea in principle, but the 50- or 100-year historical average temperature will be much lower than the 5- or 10-year historical average.

    Since the present trajectory of temperatures is more important (and more unknown) than the past trajectory, the reference “historical average” should be computed over a recent time span.

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  2. Derick says:

    Environmentalism is one of those movements that nearly everyone supports and dominates our culture, yet every day the people advocating it act like lonely individuals tenaciously fighting the establishment with their independent-mindedness like they’re Howard Roark or something. Talk about the best of both worlds.

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  3. JordanM says:

    Of course no one took him up on this. Anyone who has a serious opinion about climate change (and there are those on both sides of the issue with serious opinions) would not slander their side by taking a risk on the publicity of such a ridiculous bet which has little or nothing to do with the fundamental questions at hand.

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  4. Calderon says:

    Not quite right. Tom Maguire of the blog Just One Minute accepted tried to accept the bet with modifications, but Silver would not let him:

    http://justoneminute.typepad.com/main/2009/07/everybodys-talking-about-the-weather-but-no-one-is-betting-on-it-yet.html

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  5. TS says:

    Tom Maguire tried to accept by not following the rules of the bet. There was a reason for him trying to enter in Minnesota, and for why Nate Silver did not accept.

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  6. Kevin says:

    Betting against a sabermetrician – rarely a good idea!

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  7. Tom says:

    Proof God has a sense of humor: Record cold temps in Al Gore’s home town.

    http://www.whnt.com/news/sns-ap-tn–recordcool,0,4032125.story

    NASHVILLE, Tenn. (AP) — Cool weather has broken a previous low temperature for July 21 in Nashville that was set when Rutherford B. Hayes was president.

    When the temperature at the National Weather Service station dipped to 58 degrees at 5:30 a.m. on Tuesday, it wiped out the previous record low for the date of 60 degrees, which was set in 1877.

    NWS forecaster Bobby Boyd noted it was the third consecutive morning when Nashville either tied or broke a daily low temperature record.

    Temperatures were cool, but did not break records at several Tennessee cities.

    Knoxville dropped to 59 degrees Tuesday morning, Chattanooga had 60 degrees, Tri-Cities recorded 58 degrees and Memphis was 69 degrees.

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