Massachusetts Senate Race Update

In the last couple of hours, the InTrade prediction markets have moved sharply in favor of the Republican candidate Scott Brown to defeat Martha Coakley in the Massachusetts Senate race. The shift is too recent to reflect pre-election polls, so it’s likely on-the-ground scuttlebutt, leaked exit polls, or, well, misdirection. (Don’t forget there was a similar move toward John Kerry at about the same time on election day 2004.)

As Drudge would say: Developing…


Barth

I question whether there is reliable exit polling in this special election. Very hard to do since turnout, etc. is not as predictable as when everyone votes for everything in November, or even during primaries when a base of voters can be repeatedly polled and measured against raw exit data.

winz

I do not think there is exit polling from what I have read. There was not enough time to put it in motion reliably by the time it became interesting enough to justify exit polling.

Jeremy

As reported elsewhere on nytimes.com, there are no exit polls in place for the Massachusetts special election. Thus, the "InTrade Prediction Market" necessarily does not indicate any "scuttlebutt" based on actual polling data.

tab

Polling and ultimately final results lack relevance in this election inasmuch as its power to influence society. The fact that a republican has created so much stir in a state as blue as Massachusetts, particularly in this district, speaks for the direction this country is about move. If democratic congress people do not wake up and change their direction, this election is a statement of what will ultimately happen to their respective political careers.

Dan H

There is no formal exit polling. If anyone syas they are doing it (like CNN claims), then it is ad hoc and not reliable. See this WSJ article http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703837004575013111682315540.html?mod=WSJ_Opinion_MIDDLETopOpinion.

Stunning that a so called journalist doesn't know this.

Indy

I meant to say no exit polling in this election.

Eric

As this i available for trading throughout the country and all of the news headlines are screaming about a big potential upset I wouldn't take this as relevant. Could just be people in California (like myself) reading the news, hearing about the stock market surge and thinking this is what's going to happen. We'll find out in just a few hours!

Natch

There aren't actually any exit polls for the Senate Race so, if anything, rumors are shifting the Intrade Predictions

Pete

I had heard on the radio that Rassmusen was going to do an exit poll. I think they are counting their chickens already. Exitr poll data is a farce anyway. It is never a substitute for actually counting votes.

Art

Just think who the most motivated voters might be..Health reform is anything but..People are concerned about their jobs..Obama should be adressing that issue. If he spent as much time stumping for jobs as he did for his health package this outcome might have been different. If, in fact, she does lose. Corzine just got beat in New Jersey , did anyone notice and adjust?

st

It reflects the country favor of balance of power, or divisive of ruling. It is very sad and scary. It is costly particular at the moment of recession. Let's the flight of words begin and debt clock ticking.

st

Jesse Livermore

I'm trading it right now. What's moving the market are reports of turnout in different areas. Plus the inherent noise of blue and red traders signing in and out.
www.wiserthanthecrowd.com

KB

My polling place was busy, despite slush falling from the sky. Lines are quick because there's only the single question on the ballot.

Making a few partisan calls to likely voters on behalf of one of the campaigns, I can tell you that most with whom I spoke had already voted and the one who hadn't was on her way out the door.

So, my personal experience is that turnout is high. I've heard similar stories from other folks. Presumably, that's good for Martha, but there should be no assumptions in this race.

Karen Macleod

Let's just hope the Americans in Massachusetts will get to the polls and take care of this problem and show a stand for the one person that can stop that Health Care Reform Bill, right now! Wake up people! Remember the Alamo!

Kevin

This is the beginning of he 2nd revolution in the US. Thank god the people have awakened!!!!

Tcaros

The often so-wrong right is hanging their whole year on 1 Senate seat.

Oh, won't it be such fun watching O'Reilly or that baby child Beck eat the bitter pill again.

Dave H

It doesn't take a genius to understand with or without polling that the public is upset. Jobs, deficits and yes health care are the roots. The public is smarter than Washington Beltway understands. Time for all Dem's and Reps to wake up and hear the music or they will be unemployed also.

Jeremy

I think that the last few months have exemplified how important a "Checks and Balances" system is in the United States. We, as a people, are relatively middle of the road. Historically, we have never been very tolerant of a single party having unilateral control of our government. Every time it has happened, the people of our great country have worked pretty quickly to get things back to center and this is no exception!

Kevin

Eric..........are you on drugs??????? Jesus!!!! cmon....thank god, people who aren't from Orange County or San Francisco have anything to do with this.............SF should pay the rest of the US tens of millions for the damage that Pelosi has done. Wake up!!!!!!

-Kalya

Personally, I'm voting for Scott Brown. I don't exactly think that Martha Coakley will do much for the country. Anybody agree?