I’ve been watching developments in the Middle East and Northern Africa closely.? It can be hard to keep track of it all.? Fortunately, the prediction markets at?InTrade provide a useful barometer.
Which despots will be gone by the end of this year?? Here are the current odds — click through to see these prices fluctuate as the situation develops.
- Libya — Gadaffi 83%
- Bahrain — Al Khalifa 62%
- Yemen — Ali Abdullah Saleh 48%
- Iran — Ahmadinejad 16%
- Iran — Ayatollah Ali Khamenei 15%
It will be interesting to see how correlated movements are.? I can already see the title of the paper waiting to be written: “Is revolution contagious?? Evidence from Prediction Markets.”