Here Comes Harry!
…prediction market lists the hero’s survival at 90% as of 12:37 AM, EDT. Reuters profiles Mugglenet, a virtual Potter-ized world created by then-12-year-old fan Emerson Spartz that now receives up…
…prediction market lists the hero’s survival at 90% as of 12:37 AM, EDT. Reuters profiles Mugglenet, a virtual Potter-ized world created by then-12-year-old fan Emerson Spartz that now receives up…
It seems like not a week goes by without another prediction market being launched. This week’s entry: CasualObserver.net . Up and running just one week, it focuses on the U.S….
Photo: david_shankbone Interesting browsing these days on the prediction market InTrade, which is still mourning the loss of its founder John Delaney (a man I very much enjoyed knowing a…
…economics faculty ran the site for a few years, dubbing it, “the world’s most accurate prediction market.” Apparently, Harvard wasn’t too keen on the idea, as the following notice now…
Who’s greedier — gamblers or casinos? What’s the difference between betting on sports and entering a charity raffle? And does Angela know the name of her city’s football team? Take…
Can a future of Internet gridlock be avoided? Corporate prediction markets conference kicks off in Kansas City, Mo. A breakdown of Halloween spending. Expert debunks myths about current U.S. wages…
Submit your entries for the new NASA slogan. Will humans evolve based on high carb diets? (Earlier) The latest in prediction markets: how good will a new product be? Vote…
Are prediction markets efficient? Robert Frank back on his feet after a heart attack. (Earlier) Hackers use “flirt” program to fool would-be online daters. (HT: Marginal Revolution) Malawian innovator builds…
Tomorrow marks the iPhone’s official release to the public, in what will be one of the most hyped and anticipated product debuts in history. So far we’ve seen prediction markets…
I was at the?Legg Mason Thought Leader Forum last week, talking about my research over recent years on?prediction markets.? It was good fun, but the real novelty was that as…
…action? The prediction markets are already bubbling. Interested parties can bet on everything from the color of the queen’s hat to the vows to the length of Middleton’s train. [%comments]…
Included in the hubbub leading up to the final Harry Potter installment is a prediction exchange in which participants bet on whether Harry lives or dies — although betting has…
How well has the Radiohead experiment fared? (Earlier) Employers adopting personality tests to avoid “hiring jerks”. A “How To” for corporate prediction markets. Are we more likely to vote for…
…and there’s been a virtual flood of press coverage: 1. A report on a new paper about Google’s internal prediction markets (which Justin Wolfers, one of its authors, previewed here);…
…surprised if there were 100 people doing clean-up and landscaping. It looks like the efforts paid off, according to this Chicago Tribune article. The prediction markets seem to agree. After…
Treasury Secretary Geithner‘s fears about unemployment appear to be disappearing fast. Or at least his personal fears. According to the prediction markets at Intrade.com, the chances that he departs his…
…not been able to convince them of the importance of careful analysis of observational data. Plus?there’s plenty more, on topics ranging from happiness to prediction markets, discrimination, inflation expectations and…
In the last couple of hours, the InTrade prediction markets have moved sharply in favor of the Republican candidate Scott Brown to defeat Martha Coakley in the Massachusetts Senate race….
…lay down a few bets on those developments? Well, there’s an app for that: Intrade, one of our favorite prediction markets, has just released a free app. Given the general…
…to the new system, we can use this to start a conversation about the best way to elect the next President. And my tip?? Follow the prediction markets.? Right now,…
…leader David Cameron — the likely winner, per the prediction markets, in the yet-to-be called election — has just unleashed a doozy: his wife Samantha is expecting the couple’s fourth…
With the Democrats in control of Congress, and with the prediction markets suggesting a Democratic presidential victory, there has been a lot of talk about ending sexual orientation discrimination in…
…Informed Reader blog.) Tim Harford, the Undercover Economist, analyzes on Slate whether political prediction markets (a subject we’ve touched on often) can be rigged by a candidate (or a rival)…
…serious research papers about prediction markets and election forecasting, among other things. In fact, we still have one half-written draft of a paper that I need to return to. Despite…
…builds a better bridge to the prediction markets. Just after the poll was announced, Intrade had Romney’s probability of winning in California as 94 percent (pretty close to the 92.7…
Well, at least the folks at the PopSci Predictions Exchange listen. Last week Dubner blogged about Jatropha, a weed that could spearhead a biofuel revolution. At the end of his…
I love to gamble. Personally, I’m pretty content with the menu of bets you can find at the typical internet sports book: NFL, Nascar, the next winner of American Idol,…
As evidenced by this chart from the betting site Intrade, the probability of Slumdog Millionaire winning the Oscar for Best Picture has risen over the past two months right along…
Via Marginal Revolution: In his quest to explain the male-female wage gap in business, academia, and other fields, the economist M. Daniele Paserman studied the role that gender plays in…
