At its heart, Inspectd is a simple game: it shows you a chart of historical data on a random stock, asks you to bet on whether the stock’s price will rise or fall, and then immediately tells you if you won or lost — with another performance chart showing you why. And maybe that instant gratification is what makes this . . .
We’ve blogged fairly regularly about prediction markets, so the next step would seem pretty logical: make our own. Enter the folks at Predictify (see the latest news here), who have been kind enough to create the official Freakonomics Prediction Center. It can be found in the right-hand column of our home page. We’ll post questions and you’ll supply the predictions. . . .
The answer, according to the economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, is … “not much.” Here’s what they describe in a new NBER working paper about the causes and consequences of the current subprime crisis: Our examination of the longer historical record finds stunning qualitative and quantitative parallels to 18 earlier post-war banking crises in industrialized countries. Specifically, the run-up . . .
I have heard from plenty of nervous friends around the country, anticipating the results from Super Tuesday. Truth is, I haven’t a clue who will win. But I thought it worth offering up my own forecast: My key forecast for tonight is that the televised pundits will reveal all sorts of confusion. Tracking results across more than twenty states, and . . .
A fun game to watch yesterday, with the Giants winning 17-14 over the Pats. More to the point, a clear victory for Steve Levitt, whose advice to punters was to take the “under.” A total of 31 points were scored, well below the 54.5 point “line” in Vegas. Congrats to all who followed Steve’s Freako-tip. Ian Ayres‘ successful tip was . . .
The abortion rate in the United States is at a thirty year low — though even with the decline, we are still talking about a large number of abortions in absolute terms, or 1.2 million per year. To put this number into perspective, there are about 4 million births per year in the U.S. John Donohue and I have argued . . .
Harvard economist Greg Mankiw recently posted this chart depicting an InTrade contract on the probability of a U.S. recession in 2008, with the following commentary: In online betting, the probability of recession is now about two-thirds, compared to about one-half a few weeks ago. Evidence pointing toward a recession is certainly present, as Larry Summers and others have noted. Still, . . .
A financial markets outlook for 2008. The newest trend in Romanian business: eBay scams. (Earlier) What would Earth look like to aliens? Want to keep your Web surfing, e-mail and IMs private? Here’s how.
A reader named E. Allyn Smith, a Ph.D. student in linguistics at Ohio State University, wrote in with the following observations. I’ve been thinking about birthdays a lot lately, because November 15th to the 27th is one of the annual “birthday rushes” in which I have eight birthdays in two weeks. It got me thinking that not only are there . . .
Here’s the latest guest post from Yale economist and law professor Ian Ayres. His past posts can be found here and here. In a recent post, I mentioned that when playing poker, I use my watch as a crude random number generator to tell me when to bluff. While there are lots of sports in which it’s best to play . . .
Methane-free kangaroo gas could slow global warming. (Earlier) Weather prediction traditionalists face off against modernists. Honda introduces hydrogen-fueled car. (Earlier) Read newspapers on the Web? That could make you an “influencer”.
Wildlife refuges bring in impressive revenues. Researchers analyze goalkeeper jumps in stopping penalty kicks. (Earlier) Have your genomic profile read for just $1,000. New ranking scale helps experts predict winter storms. (Earlier)
Tech experts cast their judgments on the Kindle. (Earlier) The science of collective attention tested on Digg.com. Could the Internet run out of space by 2010? The long road ahead for the mobile Web.
An interesting article written by Jeremy Hsu on Scienceline.org does further damage to the Spinning Dancer’s already damaged reputation.
Video For the past couple of months, we’ve been regularly posting short FREAK-TV videos, made by resident young genius Nick Graham, in a box on the right-hand column of our home page. The problem was that the video itself couldn’t be housed within a blog post, so you had to scramble over to the right-hand column to watch the video . . .
Last week I linked to an intriguing visual of a spinning dancer. It is intriguing because some people see her spinning clockwise, whereas others see her spinning counter-clockwise. Moreover, some people are able to make the direction of her spin switch. The article asserts that the direction she spins is an indicator of whether your thinking is dominated by the . . .
Well, at least the folks at the PopSci Predictions Exchange listen. Last week Dubner blogged about Jatropha, a weed that could spearhead a biofuel revolution. At the end of his post, he urged the PopSci Predictions Exchange to launch a contract on Jatropha. Voila. So far there are only sellers — people betting against Jatropha — and no buyers.
Here’s my nominee for quote of the day, from a (gated) front page article in today’s Wall Street Journal: “This plant will save humanity, I tell you.” The person who said that is O.P. Singh, a horticulturist for the railway ministry of India. What plant is he talking about? A shrubby weed called jatropha, whose seeds contain an oil that . . .
Dubner discusses an excellent article in the New England Journal of Medicine by Dr. Alfredo Quinones-Hinojosa, a former illegal immigrant who is now the director of the brain-tumor stem-cell laboratory at Johns Hopkins.
After announcing our “Who will pitch home run No. 756 to Barry Bonds” contest winner, Dubner muses on whether the fateful pitch will prove good or bad for Nationals pitcher Mike Bacsik’s career.
The 2005 Hurricane season was the most active and destructive in recorded history. The devastation from hurricanes like Katrina, Rita, and Wilma was powerful evidence that man-made global warming had triggered an onslaught of unforeseen consequences — at least, that was the way the media tended to portray it. Maybe I am wrong, but I think the current focus on . . .
Nick Kristoff‘s OpEd column in today’s New York Times (sub. req’d) will set to racing the hearts of many readers of this blog. His column is about voting, and he makes several points that would not get much of an argument from a roomful of economists. (Wait, scratch that: there is nothing that a roomful of economists will not argue . . .
Via CNN.com: In the current New England Journal of Medicine, Brown University assistant medical professor David Dosa profiles Oscar, a cat in a Rhode Island nursing home who has demonstrated an ability to predict when patients will die. His means of communicating an approaching demise is uniquely feline: he curls up and naps next to those close to death. (Hat . . .
Fortune Small Business reports that a feud is brewing between two companies that provide inflatable torsos to serve as movie extras in crowd scenes. Industry leader Inflatable Crowd is being sued by competitor Crowd in a Box over patent infringement, while the defendant’s owner claims he came up with the idea on his own. (Hat tip: the Wall Street Journal‘s . . .
Here’s even more support for Levitt’s theory about the frequency of criminals having the middle name “Wayne”: Australian Christopher Wayne Hudson was arrested outside Melbourne and charged with triple homicide. (Hat Tip: Caty Harris.) Via CNN: Two New Zealand parents have been forbidden by the country’s Registry of Births, Deaths and Marriages from naming their son “4real,” under the reasoning . . .
Because we had a chapter in our book about the socioeconomic impact of baby names, we’ve blogged many times about baby names in the past, including just the other day. One question that rarely arises, however, is this: How possible is it to predict which names will become more popular in time, and which ones will fall? We did make . . .
I agree with almost everything in this opinion piece by Al Neuharth, the founder of USA Today: Super Bowl betting spotlights silly laws Plain Talk By Al Neuharth USA TODAY Founder More than half of all adults across the USA, about 112 million of us, will bet on the Super Bowl this weekend. Most of the wagers will be illegal. . . .
A couple days ago, Levitt and I were in Orlando for a lecture. Driving down the freeway, I spotted a flashing billboard for the Orlando Sentinel. The first screen was headlined “TODAY:” and trumpeted the current issue’s lead article. Then the next screen flashed. It said “TOMORROW: RIOTS IN PARIS.” Tricky business, I thought, trying to predict tomorrow’s news. The . . .
I found this list of what is supposed to be the future winners of the Nobel Prize in Economics on a blackboard at the U of C, for what it is worth. Who knows whether the people who made the list know what they are talking about. There are about 40 people on the list, and about 2 people get . . .
John Tierney wrote a great New York Times column in response to the Maass article on Peak Oil in the Sunday NY Times Magazine that I criticized. Tierney and Matthew Simmons, who is the point man for the Peak Oil team, made a $10,000 bet as to whether in 2010 oil would be above or below $200 a barrel (adjusted . . .