Are Billy Beane Believers still expecting 97 wins this year?What do the 100+ angry baseball fans who have posted livid responses to my earlier postings about Billy Beane have to say about the new data that has been assembled since I made my first claims? The A’s record is now 14-20. The chances of a team that wins 60 percent of their games going 14-20 in the first 34 games is about 1 in 50. Even a team that is expected to win 50 percent of their games (as the market predicted the A’s should at the beginning of the season) will start this poorly only 20% of the time.
So far it looks like the market knows more than the “experts” who respond to my posts. Which is, of course, what we should all expect.