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A New Prediction Market for the Masses

For those of you who love prediction markets (a variety of which we’ve written about in the past), there’s a new site that looks to be as vast, inclusive, and user-friendly as anything I’ve seen: Predictify.

You can wager on standing bets (who will be the Yankees’ next manager, e.g.) or “tap collective wisdom” (I hope they’re paying Jim Surowiecki a royalty) by putting a question to the public.

There’s a free version of the question model in which you get 100 responses from the public, as well as a premium version that, if the audience proves to be dependable, might soon become every marketer’s best friend.

The featured bet when I visited the site was established by Scott Adams of Dilbert fame, asking how many copies of his new, non-Dilbert book will be in print by January 2008.

Great bet — as long as you can believe the publisher’s number. (Hint: search for “biggest joke in history” in the link provided.)