#### Scott

"Research shows that stone, also called rock, is the most popular of the three possible moves in the game.

That means that your opponent is likely to choose paper, because they will expect to you to start the game with stone. "

Am I reading this wrong or does this make completely no sense? It's not like your opponent is in some different game that isn't included in the statistics. If rock is thrown first 100% of the time then you should throw paper not thinking well since Rock is thrown 100% of the time my opponent will throw paper because if this was the case statistically rock wouldn't be thrown 100% of the time because everyone would think this. Shouldn't it say "people perceive rock to be thrown the most hence they throw paper which is actually thrown the most thus having scissors win?"

#### Ken Pirok

And, if you're in a rock, paper, scissors competition and your opponents have read the article cited above, then you should throw rock first to smash the scissors that they throw first.

And, then we're back to square one.

#### Mike Berman

I think there may be a logic error in the last sentence of the rock/paper/scissors article. It says: "Alternatively you could throw the move that would have beaten your opponent's previous move. The logic here is that players subconsciously try to beat their own previous move." Assuming the premise is correct, I think the winning throw would then be "the move that defeats the move that would have beaten your opponent's previous move".

#### Erik

Scott is right: if rock is actually the most common, then the best response really is paper.

Of course, this can be altered based on how much experience the players have and how much time they have to think of strategy: it could be that rock is the most common for off-the-cuff games, so if you go into an off-the-cuff game you would choose paper, but if you go into a game that has been set up in advance or an off-the-cuff game with a serious player, you could play off the *belief* that rock is most common and thus play scissors.

#### Punditus Maximus

Clearly I cannot choose the wine in front of me.

Great example of a Beauty Contest game.

#### Scott

"Research shows that stone, also called rock, is the most popular of the three possible moves in the game.

That means that your opponent is likely to choose paper, because they will expect to you to start the game with stone. "

Am I reading this wrong or does this make completely no sense? It's not like your opponent is in some different game that isn't included in the statistics. If rock is thrown first 100% of the time then you should throw paper not thinking well since Rock is thrown 100% of the time my opponent will throw paper because if this was the case statistically rock wouldn't be thrown 100% of the time because everyone would think this. Shouldn't it say "people perceive rock to be thrown the most hence they throw paper which is actually thrown the most thus having scissors win?"

#### Ken Pirok

And, if you're in a rock, paper, scissors competition and your opponents have read the article cited above, then you should throw rock first to smash the scissors that they throw first.

And, then we're back to square one.

#### Mike Berman

I think there may be a logic error in the last sentence of the rock/paper/scissors article. It says: "Alternatively you could throw the move that would have beaten your opponent's previous move. The logic here is that players subconsciously try to beat their own previous move." Assuming the premise is correct, I think the winning throw would then be "the move that defeats the move that would have beaten your opponent's previous move".

#### Erik

Scott is right: if rock is actually the most common, then the best response really is paper.

Of course, this can be altered based on how much experience the players have and how much time they have to think of strategy: it could be that rock is the most common for off-the-cuff games, so if you go into an off-the-cuff game you would choose paper, but if you go into a game that has been set up in advance or an off-the-cuff game with a serious player, you could play off the *belief* that rock is most common and thus play scissors.

#### Punditus Maximus

Clearly I cannot choose the wine in front of me.

Great example of a Beauty Contest game.