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Make Your Predictions: The Next Big Political Scandal

We recently introduced you (or should that be “introductified” you?) to the Freakonomics Prediction Center that Predictify built for this blog. And you all went and predicted like mad.

So here’s a new Predictify challenge. You can leave your answer in the comments below if you want but it is more fun and worthwhile to make your prediction in the Prediction Center.

The next time the New York Times publishes a front-page article (that’s A1, not the front of the Metro or Business sections) about a career-threatening or career-ending political scandal involving a major politician — either a U.S. governor, member of Congress, or the president or vice president — what will be the primary cause of the scandal:

Financial impropriety
Adultery or other sexual error
Associating with undesirable people
Drug or alcohol abuse
Being caught in a lie about his/her own past

Bonus question: Who will the person be?