This Year’s Kentucky Derby Winner…
With a field of twenty horses, it is no simple task to pick a winner.
Much like last year, there is not a single horse in the field who looks like a positive-expected-value bet according to my (sadly inexact) computer program.
Still, the computer says that three horses look like reasonable horses to play in exactas: the likely favorite Big Brown, as well as two long shots: Anak Nakal (who should go off about 23-1) and Bob Black Jack, whom I project at 15-1.
The worst bets according to my system are Court Vision (16-1) and Recapturetheglory (55-1). I don’t like three of the other favorites either: Colonel John, Z Fortune, or Tale Of Ekati.
I can’t do any worse than last year when I said I would not touch Street Sense, who ended up winning.
The Times‘s sports section has this to say about handicapping the Kentucky Derby. It is worth taking a look at the article if for no other reason than the guy in the photo is wearing glasses almost identical to the old pair I used to wear that Dubner mocked when he first wrote about me in The Times.
Just in case you can’t access the article, here’s a screen-shot: