Good News for N.B.A. Fans

Tim Donaghy‘s 2007 arrest for betting on N.B.A. games, including games that he refereed, shocked basketball fans. Despite his astounding betting success rate (70 to 80 percent), Donaghy claimed that he never fixed N.B.A. games but rather used insider information, a claim that the N.B.A., the F.B.I., and the U.S. Attorney’s office were unable to disprove. Donaghy’s new book, Personal Foul, details his strategy, which he says relied heavily on personal biases among referees. If Donaghy is telling the truth about referee bias, the N.B.A.’s credibility is shot. But is he? TrueHoop blogger Henry Abbott investigates the stats and finds that Donaghy’s strategy doesn’t do a very good job of explaining his success. He writes, “Did Tim Donaghy fix games? His book is emphatic that he did not, but while it has provided many claims to that effect, it has not yet delivered evidence.” [%comments]