Gambling on the Go

Do you ever find yourself untethered from your computer and just dying to know what everyone’s thinking about the latest political, scientific, entertainment, or financial developments? And perhaps hoping to lay down a few bets on those developments?

Well, there’s an app for that: Intrade, one of our favorite prediction markets, has just released a free app.

Given the general reliability of Intrade, especially with electoral races, I wondered how it performed for the LeBron James sweepstakes. See for yourself:

LeBron James to re-sign with the Cleveland Cavaliers

LeBron James to sign with the New York Knicks

LeBron James to sign with the Chicago Bulls

LeBron James to sign with the Miami Heat

This isn’t necessarily to say that Intrade failed in this case, as the best available information — including that residing in LeBron’s neurons — wasn’t suggesting Miami as recently as two weeks ago.


Actually, a lot of information pointed towards Miami. Stephen A. Smith said it a while back.

The issue came down to people overplaying based on what LeBron SHOULD do and underplaying based on what the signals pointed to with regards to what LeBron WOULD do.


Isn't that the primary problem with economics? That people don't always act rationally?


The interesting thing about these markets (not sure if it was InTrade, but I think it was) was that it was worded not what team he would play for, but who he would sign with.

Since he actually signed with Cleveland in a deal sending him to Miami (so Cleveland could get some draft picks and a trade exception and Lebron could get a more lucrative deal), so the winner of the prop bet was actually Cleveland in this case.


Seems like those Cleveland fans that felt like they being were led on were correct. I thought it was probably a 50/50 proposition until he announced that he'd make his decision during an hour cable broadcast. At that point, I figured he'd be staying as no rational person would destroy his carefully created brand and image, but that's exactly what he did.


Not only did he leave his home state, the jerk announced it on nintoaal tv and slapped the Cavs right across the face. He made it a one hour special entitled the decison. Then, he gives the money to charity as an excuse, yet will never give a dime out of his own pocket. Im not even a Cavs fan and i hate LeBron or being a stupid jerk. i hope he never wins

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Tie Tou

When you look at the tax ramifications of his decision, I think it's safe to say that he was acting in a very rational fashion. That ain't to say that the punk's got any heart.


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