A Strange Sentence About Grand Slams

From today’s Times, an article by David Waldstein called “Mets’ Stretch Without a Slam? Gone. Gone“:

The Mets had gone 299 games and 280 plate appearances with the bases loaded since their last grand slam, while their opponents had hit 18 during that span. So when the opportunity arose in the fourth inning Tuesday night — with Jason Bay at the plate, no less — the chance of a Mets grand slam was slim.

Was the chance of a grand slam really so slim?

Photo: ElvertBarnes

If you flip a coin 10 times in a row and come up with 10 heads, is the 11th flip any more likely to be heads (or, for that matter, tails)?
Of course, it could be that such a long streak without a grand slam feeds into the Mets’ collective psyche and discourages them from hitting one.
It could also be that the Mets are simply worse than everyone else at hitting home runs in general (which they’re not, even though they’re pretty bad).
But more likely the streak was an essentially random run of bad luck.
Which finally ended with Jason Bay hitting a grand slam.
And then, seven batters later, Carlos Beltran hit another grand slam for the Mets.
Random is as random does. Which is why predicting the future is such a fool’s errand.
Question: how many at-bats until the Mets hit their next grand slam?