A New Indication of a Double-Dip

Photo: Sam Howzit

We all have our favorite business cycle indicators.  I have a new one.  Last week I was at the (superb!) NBER Summer Institute.  And for the first time in 15 years of attending this conference, there was no guacamole on Taco Day.  The bad GDP data had come out a mere three hours earlier.  Coincidence, or coincident indicator?

No need to convene the Business Cycle Dating Committee: The guacamole has spoken.  It’s the first casualty of a double-dip.


Double-dip? Sounds like a complete absence of dip.


Worse, no green (guac) available.


My favorite recession indicator is attractive people working at second rate restaurants because the high end places have had to reduce headcount.


We also saw the opposite indicator when our local economy was cooking: less attractive wait staff at the restaurant that was usually packed with eye candy.


I feel like space on this blog is pretty valuable and shouldn't be wasted with dumb posts like this.