Kentucky Derby 2012

Every year I post Kentucky Derby picks.

Every year they turn out to be terrible.

Every year I vow I will not embarrass myself again next year.

Every year two or three loyal readers email me and ask why I didn’t post my picks this year, so then I post picks after all.

So, against my better judgment, here they are.

My best bet this year is a semi-long shot called Take Charge Indy.  He should go off at about 12-1.  According to my algorithm, he is the only horse out of twenty in the race who is a positive expected value bet in the win pool.

I’d take a horse called I’ll Have Another to place.  He’s a long shot also.

To show, I like Bodemeister, who will be one of the favorites.

And no set of picks would be complete without a prediction as to which horse will finish last: Daddy Long Legs.

With any luck, I won’t be writing a follow-up post on Monday congratulating the owner of Daddy Long Legs.