Another Look at an Unorthodox Hurricane-Prevention Idea

(Photo: photosteve101)

Very interesting backgrounder on Stephen Salter, the British scientist who, in the course of trying to turn ocean waves into electric power, discovered a potential way to prevent, or at least limit, the impact of hurricanes:

Devastating tropical storms of the kind that battered the U.S. last week could be weakened and rendered less deadly using a simple and cheap technology based on a surprising component – old car tyres.

One of Britain’s leading marine engineers, Stephen Salter, emeritus professor of engineering design at Edinburgh university and a global pioneer of wave power research, has patented with Microsoft billionaires Bill Gates and Nathan Myhrvold the idea of using thousands of tyres lashed together to support giant plastic tubes which extend 100m deep into the ocean.

Wave action on the ocean surface would force warm surface water down into the deeper ocean. If non-return valves were used, he says, the result would be to mix the waters and cool the surface temperature of the ocean to under 26.5C, the critical temperature at which hurricanes form.

This is the same hurricane-prevention invention we discussed in a brief Freakonomics Radio segment and in greater depth in SuperFreakonomics:

How does it work? Imagine one of these skirted inner tubes— a giant, funky, man- made jellyfish— floating in the ocean. As a warm wave splashes over the top, the water level inside the ring rises until it is higher than the surrounding ocean. “When you have water elevated above the surface in a tube like that,” Nathan [Myhrvold] explains, “it’s called ‘hydraulic head.’”

Hydraulic head is a force, created by the energy put into the waves by wind. This force would push the warm surface water down into the long plastic cylinder, ultimately flushing it out at the bottom, far beneath the surface. As long as the waves keep coming — and they always do — the hydraulic head’s force would keep pushing surface water into the cooler depths, which inevitably lowers the ocean’s surface temperature. The process is low-impact, non- polluting, and slow: a molecule of warm surface water would take about three hours to be flushed out the bottom of the plastic cylinder.

Now imagine deploying these floats en masse in the patches of ocean where hurricanes grow. Nathan envisions “a picket fence” of them between Cuba and the Yucatán and another skein off the southeastern seaboard of the United States. They’d also be valuable in the South China Sea and in the Coral Sea off the coast of Australia. How many would be needed? Depending on their size, a few thousand floats might be able to stop hurricanes in the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico.

Dan Aris

Now, I may be applying too simplistic an understanding of the forces involved here, but...

Wouldn't this just delay the formation of a hurricane? And make it much, much worse when it did finally form?

I mean, it's not like the energy here is being removed from the ocean: it's just being pushed deeper down. This method appears to use the top 100m (or whatever depth) of ocean as a giant buffer for the surface energy. But presumably, that buffer *can* get filled up, and then you've got this much, much greater reservoir of energy for hurricanes to draw on.

And what of the sea life 100m down that's suddenly dealing with an influx of warm water? Not to mention dealing with an influx of surface sea life (at least at the microscopic level). Leaving aside the thermodynamics of it all, what ecological impact would this have?


Sounds like another possibility of an unintended consequence...


Yeah, calling something "low impact" that has the alteration of weather patters at a scale of thousands of kilometers as its *intended* consequence is... bold. And not the good kind of bold.

Still, given the massive devastation caused by hurricanes, could the uninteded consequences really be so much worse that it should not be tried?

Ben D

Key words: "might" and "idea"

Let's not count these chickens before they hatch please.

MIke Colucci

Interesting idea in light of the damage that hurricanes cause. However, I wonder what the law of unintended consequences would reveal? If we were to dampen or suppress these hurricane forces how would it manifest itself?


And does this warm surface water have an effect on the temperatures deeper in the ocean? Some of the things that live down there may be sensitive to temperature changes.


I totally agree this is interesting but for an institution that built its reputation on unintended consequences (and just did a podcast on the topic), its a little odd you aren't mentioning there might be some unforeseen effects from toying with the world's atmospheric currents. How confident are we that stopping a hurricane doesn't cause a drought somewhere else (less moisture circulating perhaps)? Or accelerate the melting of polar ice caps (this would seem to raise the ocean temperature slightly)? You might think those questions don't make sense but the real question is, what are we not thinking about?


Unintended consequences. Marine migration, leeching tire particles into the ocean, what other unforeseen problems would this impart? I'm no scientist, but the theory sounds better than the actual application.


Well, it seems to me there are two potential consequences related to themodynamics. With enough volume to influence the surface temperature of the water, you could end up with two possibilities.

First, over time the lower levels of the ocean could heat up, which could do anything from making hurricane season last longer, to make more intense hurricanes once they do form.

The other potential consequence is that with enough volume to have a real impact on hurricane formation, this could have an impact on the gulf stream current.


When we push the warmer water down deeper, how will that impact the growth of Godzilla-type creatures in those depths? Has there been an economic analysis of the damage from hurricanes vs. large sea creatures?


Also, spare some time to think abt this: try to solve problems from the future - this could be a reaction to the present. we will have different challenges in 2030.

Eric M. Jones

Sure. What could POSSIBLY go wrong?


listen, if you tried this idea on your own, Nathan & Friends will come sue you for infringing on their patents.

Mark C

Way to much analysis here, let the market do it's thing. Give the insurance companies the option to fund the project and move the floats around. Let them develop the risk model and they will figure it out. Might require some policy incentives for less developed/less insured regions where the opportunity cost of indemnity claims does not outweigh cost to maintain the tire floatilla.


Interesting idea, but I don't think this would be attractive for insurance companies. As I see it, since there's less of a reason to purchase insurance if hurricane formation has stopped from the "picket fence," no insurance company would want to fund this project.


Your missing the fact that insurance company premiums are set using a risk adjusted model. There is a reason that Florida homeowners pay a lot more for home insurance than Philadelphians do, for example. Insurance companies would be fairly indifferent to the project as their premiums are set to generate a certain amount of profit after paying claims. If severity and frequency of claims drop so to must premiums lest you be undercut by a competitor. The proper funding sources for such projects are those who are disproportionally negatively affected by the hurricanes, i.e. the population of the south eastern coast etc. They are the ones who have to pay the increased premiums and deal with the loss of life and property that result from a Cat. 5.


easier still would be to temporarily float car tires of the coast forming an artificial bull kelp bed. seeing as most major hurricanes have a five day, or more, advanced track or path of impact, it would seem feasible to temporarily plant beds of artificial kelp to lessen the impact of the storm surge/swell.
Bull kelp acts as a wonderful natural buffer against massive swells on a daily basis all over the planet. easily tangible bio mimicry with a readily accessible waste product...

Nathan Rogers

Dear Sir or Madam;

Hello and good day to you.

We may have a very interesting story for you at the end of this Hurricane season....

The headline might read something like this... "Scientists Finally Conquer the Most Powerful Force of Nature!"

No one to my knowledge has ever in the history of mankind been able to prevent a hurricane from forming nor neutralize a full force storm like we have. It is my opinion this is a HUGE BREAKTHROUGH in technology.

My group of scientists and I have developed an anti-hurricane (storm) technology that we believe to be safe for humanity. We are focused on the North Atlantic aka hurricane alley. We use Dr. Walter Russell's and Lao Russell's "Russillian Science," Centripetal Magnetics as a basis for our technology.

One can see our technology demonstrated on TS Dorian 2013. (Link below). Once Dorian reached 60 mph wind speeds we turned or tech ON and the rest is history.

Our goal is preservation of life and property. This year to date storms have taken 9 lives, (9 lives to many) and have caused more than $1 million in property damage. An average season of storms take hundreds of lives and cause $23+ Billion in damage just in the USA alone. Last year Sandy killed more than 110 people and caused in excess of $68 billion in property damage in the USA alone. Sandy was not even categorized as a hurricane when she hit the US coastline.

We will know by years end if our new technology has decreased the number of storms that kill and cause destruction. NOAA has predicted a 70% chance of 13-19 named storms of 39+ mph winds, 6-9 hurricanes with winds 74+ mph winds, 3-5 could be major hurricanes with winds 111+ mph for the 2013 storm season.

I invite you to keep an eye on hurricane alley over the next few months and hopefully with good results from our technology, you and I can discuss the possibility of an interview later this year if you would like.

Thank you.


Nathan Rogers
Cave Creek, AZ



Speaking about this with a meteorologist friend, he pointed out a rather substantial long term flaw in the plan. By keeping the warmest water on the very surface provides the most effective method from preventing the entire water from warming up. In effect that is the insulation which protects the water below from becoming warmer. Hot air heats a hot layer of water more slowly then hot air in direct contact with cooler water. Likewise the stratified temperature insures maximum cooling when air temperatures are cooler than the surface temperature. When air temperatures are coolest the biggest differential between air and water provides the most impact on cooling the water. If deeper layers are used as a heat sink to cool the surface, then heat will not dissipate as quickly to the air when the surface air temperature becomes closer to the water temperature. Likewise a cooler surface will be more impacted by hotter air than water closer to the air temperature. In the end by mixing the water and decreasing the temperature stratification would speed the warming of the entire ocean at is becomes a huge heat sink. This may slow global warming but the hurricane problem would come roaring back as the water absorbed more and more total heat so that the energy stored in the top layer accumulated to a deeper layer with no way to be cooled. The surface layer would eventually regain its heat and the layers below would be warmer as well. Of course this would also melt the ice caps more quickly as well. This may be a very dangerous experiment when you think about it.