Big Brown Looks Pretty Good

I just ran my horse racing model for the Belmont Stakes.

It predicts that Big Brown will go off at odds of 1/5…even lower than his morning line odds of 2/5. I estimate that a $2 bet on Big Brown has an expected value of $1.81. Although the expected value is negative (you will lose an average of 19 cents per $2 bet if I’m right), after the track takes its cut, the typical horse only returns $1.64. So relatively, my model likes Big Brown more than the bettors do.

There is one horse in the race that does have a positive expected value: Anak Nakal. The model says that $2 bet on him will yield $2.08. I also liked Anak Nakal in the Kentucky Derby, where he went off at 53-1 and finished seventh.

If I were betting a trifecta, I would throw in Tale of Ekati along with the other two horses.

My final prediction: no horses get badly injured, although I would be more confident on this one if trainers gave this new technology a shot.