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Answer Interruptus

Yesterday, I wrote here that I was scheduled to appear on Good Morning America today to talk about an issue that’s virtually absent from the presidential campaign. You responded in force with guesses about what the issue is, and several of you guessed right. But there is a reason I used that phrase, “scheduled to appear” — because with TV, . . .



Can Economic Incentives Get You Pregnant?

Fertility has become a big business in the U.S., with Americans spending up to $3 billion a year on treatments, drugs, and methods aimed at enabling couples to conceive. Discussions of modern infertility have focused on cultural factors like the rising average age of marriage and the influx of women in the workforce, with studies linking it to environmental and . . .



The FREAK-est Links

Can studying earthquakes lead to a cure for epilepsy? Should we be able to buy organs? AEI to host a discussion. The irrational truth about humans and money. (Earlier) Ferrari explores switching to ethanol. (Earlier)



What’s the One Issue That None of the Presidential Candidates Are Talking About?

I am scheduled to appear on Good Morning America tomorrow (Wednesday, Jan. 16) at about 8:30 EST to talk about one issue that is, almost bizarrely, missing from all the campaign talk. It’s a subject that has figured prominently in past campaigns. Any guesses? (Addendum: I’ll post the answer sometime tomorrow late a.m./early afternoon.)



‘The Logic of Life’

Tim Harford, a.k.a. the Undercover Economist, has a new book out called The Logic of Life. Tim is a very fine economist, writer, TV host, and “agony uncle” (that’s British for “advice columnist”). Yes, he is also British. Although I have blogged in the past about the untrustworthiness of book blurbs, let me say here that I both blurbed Tim’s . . .



How to Rig an Election? Ask the Author

We’ve covered the history of dirty politics in the U.S. here at Freakonomics. But what about the modern state of affairs? Allen Raymond knows a thing or two about bending the rules in the electoral process. A former G.O.P. political operative who served as chief of staff to a co-chairman of the Republican National Committee and supervised numerous election victories, . . .



The FREAK-est Links

Can we predict a recession based on how often newspapers use the word? Freakonomics now available on the street in India. Are New Years’ resolutions ineffective? A study. (Earlier) Second Life bans virtual banking to thwart scams. (Earlier)



Two Good Lectures This Week If You Live in Chicago

Michael Shermer, a noted skeptic who writes a monthly column for Scientific American, is visiting the University of Chicago campus tonight to talk about his new book, The Mind of the Market. I’m halfway through the book, which explores how evolution has shaped the way people interact with the modern economy. It is extremely interesting, and I will write more . . .



More Opportunity Costs of Foregoing Nuclear Power

We’ve written quite a few times about the helter-skelter path that nuclear power has taken in this country; see this Times column, this supporting evidence, and this blog post for a quick summary. Here, from today’s Times, is an assessment of nuclear power that has a good deal in common with ours: “All careful analysis confirms that the risk of . . .



Prediction Markets at Google: A Guest Post

In my last post, I promised to say a bit more about prediction markets at Google. Google has been running internal prediction markets for a couple of years, and Eric Zitzewitz and I were fortunate enough to team up with Google whiz Bo Cowgill to analyze these markets. Ask any economist about the “theory of the firm” (what firms do . . .



The FREAK-est Links

Are stressed out teachers more likely to expel students? Is the mafia involved in tennis match rigging? (Earlier) Is grass the best source of ethanol? (Earlier) Is Rock, Paper, Scissors the best way to pick a president?



Is Space Exploration Worth the Cost? A Freakonomics Quorum

Warning: what follows is a long blog post, perhaps better suited for a newspaper or magazine, and it will at times require your close attention. But I believe it is easily one of the best quorums we’ve ever published here. I’d like to thank all the participants for their thoughtful, well-considered, and fascinating answers, and for taking the time to . . .



‘How to Read a Book for Free on Amazon’

That is the headline of Rafe Furst‘s blog post here, and that is the subject of his post as well. It is a very entertaining read (hardly surprising, coming from Rafe), especially as he leads up to describing the holy grail of Amazon free grazing: the Minimal Amazon Covering Set, about which Rafe has also set up a Wikipedia page. . . .



The FREAK-est Links

What percentage of Americans believe what they read in the news? (HT: Romenesko) Prague brothel tries new Web-based business model. (Earlier) The latest in incentives to beat chronic oversleeping. Is there a “happiness” quotient to measuring economic benefits?



Is Too Much Attention Paid to Small InTrade Contracts?

Harvard economist Greg Mankiw recently posted this chart depicting an InTrade contract on the probability of a U.S. recession in 2008, with the following commentary: In online betting, the probability of recession is now about two-thirds, compared to about one-half a few weeks ago. Evidence pointing toward a recession is certainly present, as Larry Summers and others have noted. Still, . . .



Is There a January Late-Fee Spike?

If I am someone who profits from other people paying their bills late — a big landlord, perhaps, who charges a 5 percent late fee on rents — I would have to think that January is my favorite month. Why? So many people are traveling during late December, or having their schedules otherwise interrupted, or are perhaps afraid to open . . .



A Book I Absolutely Loved: Gang Leader For A Day

There are few people I have ever met who are more interesting to talk to than Sudhir Venkatesh. I’ve known him for over a decade, and I cannot remember ever having a boring conversation with him. This Q&A with Venkatesh gives you a sedate and sanitized peek into the sorts of things he has been part of throughout his career. . . .



The FREAK-est Links

Did Obama lose, or did Hillary just win? Are the 2008 candidates “anti-business”? The stock market may fare better when it’s not in session. How does charity in the U.S. compare to that of the U.K.? (Earlier)



Bad Typo Dept.

No typo is a good typo. I’ve had more than my share. In a long-ago article about Central Park, I referred to its bridal trail, which implies it is a place that brides, not horses, do their running. Another memorable snafu wasn’t technically a typo, but it was still pretty terrible. For a profile of Catherine Abate, the commissioner of . . .



Schwarzenegger Lowers Crime

California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger is one politician who can credibly claim that he is truly responsible for reducing crime, at least if you believe a new study by economists Gordon Dahl and Stefano DellaVigna. It isn’t his policies as governor, however, that he can take credit for, but rather his acting roles. In their new paper entitled “Does Movie Violence . . .



What A Night! Interpreting the New Hampshire Primary

A few observations about last night’s surprise result in the New Hampshire primary. Let me draw on the thoughts outlined in my column for the Wall Street Journal. First, red faces all around for the political prognosticators: Judging by the pre-vote polls and prediction markets, the Democratic primary in New Hampshire created one of the most surprising upsets in U.S. . . .



What Do Real Thugs Think of The Wire?

Sudhir Venkatesh has become pretty well known in these parts as an authority on the inner workings of criminal street gangs. His new book is out tomorrow; but today, here’s a great post from him about watching “The Wire” with some of the kind of guys who are portrayed in it. Ever since I began watching HBO’s The Wire, I . . .



The FREAK-est Links

Study shows black Americans still receive inferior cancer treatment. How many people went out for Chinese on Christmas? Could more sun actually be good for you? Ordering at restaurants: a behavioral economist’s take.



Richard Freeman on Colbert

I have been looking forward to seeing the resurrection of serious political coverage, and finally The Colbert Report returned to the air last night. And it was a wonderful surprise to see Richard Freeman — who taught me labor economics at Harvard — as a guest on the show, explaining what unions do. A topical guest, in light of the . . .



Who Cares About Economists?

Apparently a lot of people do, or at least the people working at newspapers and blogs. The annual American Economic Association meeting was held over the weekend in New Orleans, and there’s been a virtual flood of press coverage: 1. A report on a new paper about Google’s internal prediction markets (which Justin Wolfers, one of its authors, previewed here); . . .



What Do I Have In Common With Hannah Montana?

I sometimes do wear a wig and too much eye makeup, but that’s not what I had in mind. The answer to the question is that people are scalping tickets to both of our performances. There was uproar recently about the steep prices resellers were getting for her concert tickets — sometimes upwards of $2,000. My venue is a little . . .



The FREAK-est Links

Album sales hit new lows in 2007. (Earlier) New InTrade markets predict the effects candidates may have on economic matters. Is this pollster luckier than everyone, or just better? Study shows monkeys may “pay” for sex. (Earlier)



Campus Crime Junk Stats?

The Education Life supplement in yesterday’s Times included an intriguing article simply called “Data” and subtitled “Law and Order.” It listed crime statistics for roughly 120 urban college campuses across the country. A brief introduction warned that the statistics could easily be — well, junk: With so many ways to consider and report crime, statistics are inconclusive. But by federal . . .



What Can Hidden Video Teach Us About Our Healthcare System?

Dr. Gretchen Berland, an assistant professor at the Yale University School of Medicine and former documentary filmmaker, writes in the New England Journal of Medicine of an extraordinary experiment she has conducted over the past 10 years. It involved giving videocameras to people in wheelchairs, and asking them to document their daily lives (samples of the videos can be seen . . .



A Q&A With — of All People — Us

We’ve been running lots of Q&As of late, with you, the readers, asking the questions. A fellow named Thomas Whitaker recently wrote us to suggest that we submit to a Q&A ourselves. This seemed like a sensible suggestion. We did a bunch of Q&As back when the book came out (see here and here and here, and these FAQs), but . . .