Search the Site

Search Results for: Daniel Kahneman/2011/06/30/the-folly-of-prediction-full-transcript

Episode image
Follow this show
Episode 30

How to Count to Infinity: TMSIDK Episode 30

Mountains account for 10 percent of the world population, and 25 percent of its surface, yet they host a strikingly disproportionate number of wars and conflicts. Since World War II,…

Episode image
Follow this show
EXTRA

Remembering Daniel Kahneman

Nobel laureate, bestselling author, and groundbreaking psychologist Daniel Kahneman died in March. In 2021 he talked with Steve Levitt — his friend and former business partner — about his book…

Episode image
Follow this show
EXTRA

Remembering Daniel Kahneman

Nobel laureate, bestselling author, and groundbreaking psychologist Daniel Kahneman died in March. In 2021 he talked with Steve Levitt — his friend and former business partner — about his book…

Episode image
Follow this show
Episode 27

Daniel Kahneman on Why Our Judgment is Flawed — and What to Do About It

Nobel laureate, bestselling author, and groundbreaking psychologist Daniel Kahneman is also a friend and former business partner of Steve’s. In discussing Danny’s new book Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment,…

Episode image
Follow this show
Episode 30

Does College Still Matter? And Other Freaky Questions Answered…

In our second round of FREAK-quently Asked Questions, Steve Levitt answers some queries from listeners and readers.

Episode image
Follow this show
Episode 596

Farewell to a Generational Talent

Daniel Kahneman left his mark on academia (and the real world) in countless ways. A group of his friends and colleagues recently gathered in Chicago to reflect on this legacy…

Episode image
Follow this show
EXTRA

The Men Who Started a Thinking Revolution (Update)

The psychologist Daniel Kahneman — a Nobel laureate and the author of Thinking, Fast and Slow — recently died at age 90. Along with his collaborator Amos Tversky, he changed…

Episode image
Follow this show
Episode 271

The Men Who Started a Thinking Revolution

Starting in the late 1960s, the Israeli psychologists Amos Tversky and Danny Kahneman began to redefine how the human mind actually works. Michael Lewis’s new book The Undoing Project explains…

Episode image
Follow this show
Episode 41

The Folly of Prediction

Human beings love to predict the future, but we’re quite terrible at it. So how about punishing all those bad predictions?

Episode image
Follow this show
Episode 41

The Folly of Prediction (Replay)

Human beings love to predict the future, but we’re quite terrible at it. So how about punishing all those bad predictions?

Episode image
Follow this show
Episode 306

How to Launch a Behavior-Change Revolution

Academic studies are nice, and so are Nobel Prizes. But to truly prove the value of a new idea, you have to unleash it to the masses. That’s what a…

Episode image
Follow this show
Episode 53

What’s the Secret to Making a Great Prediction?

Also: How do you recover from a bad day?…

Episode image
Follow this show
Episode 173

How Important Is Your Choice of Words?

What happens when three psychologists walk into a magic show? What’s Angela’s problem with the word “talent”? And why does LeBron James refer to himself in the third person?…

Episode image
Follow this show
Episode 36

Which Matters More, a First or Last Impression?

Also: does wisdom really come with age?…


Episode image
Follow this show
EXTRA

People Aren’t Dumb. The World Is Hard. (Update)

You wouldn’t think you could win a Nobel Prize for showing that humans tend to make irrational decisions. But that’s what Richard Thaler has done. In an interview from 2018,…

Episode image
Follow this show
Episode 189

When Should You Trust Your Gut?

Does instinct trump expertise? Can playing poker improve your intuition? And why did Angela jump off of a moving trolley car?…

Episode image
Follow this show
Episode 78

Why Do We Put Things Off Until the Very Last Minute?

Also: what does your name say about who you are?…

The Folly of Prediction, Cont'd.

Our “Folly of Prediction” podcast included an interview with Joe Prusacki, who directs the statistics division at the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service. This means he helps make crop forecasts…



Episode image
Follow this show
Episode 14

Are You a Maximizer or a Satisficer?

Also: what is the best question you’ve ever been asked in a job interview?

Daniel Kahneman Answers Your Questions

Two weeks ago, we solicited your questions for Princeton psychology professor and Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman, whose new book is called Thinking, Fast and Slow. You responded by asking 45…



Episode image
Follow this show
Episode 59

Who Gives the Worst Advice?

Steve usually asks his guests for advice, whether they’re magicians or Nobel laureates. After nearly 60 episodes, is any of it worth following — or should we just ask listeners…


Episode image
Follow this show
Episode 152

What’s the Worst Kind of Regret?

Is it worse to regret something you’ve done, or something you haven’t done? What’s the upside of rejection? And which great American short-story writer convinced Angela to quit driving?…

Episode image
Follow this show
Episode 28

Why Can’t We Predict Earthquakes?

We talk to a U.S. Geological Survey physicist about the science — and folly — of predicting earthquakes. There are lots of known knowns; and, fortunately, not too many unknown…

Episode image
Follow this show
Episode 201

Are You Dreaming Too Big?

Are fantasies helpful or harmful? How is daydreaming like a drug? And what did Angela fantasize about during ninth-grade English class?…

Episode image
Follow this show
Episode 340

People Aren’t Dumb. The World Is Hard. (Replay)

You wouldn’t think you could win a Nobel Prize for showing that humans tend to make irrational decisions. But that’s what Richard Thaler has done. The founder of behavioral economics…

Episode image
Follow this show
Episode 340

People Aren’t Dumb. The World Is Hard.

You wouldn’t think you could win a Nobel Prize for showing that humans tend to make irrational decisions. But that’s what Richard Thaler has done. The founder of behavioral economics…

Episode image
Follow this show
Episode 169

Can We Disagree Better?

Do you suffer from the sin of certainty? How did Angela react when a grad student challenged her research? And can a Heineken commercial strengthen our democracy?…