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Search Results for: Daniel Kahneman/2011/06/30/the-folly-of-prediction-full-transcript

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Episode 368

Where Do Good Ideas Come From?

Whether you’re mapping the universe, hosting a late-night talk show, or running a meeting, there are a lot of ways to up your idea game. Plus: the truth about brainstorming….

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Episode 264

In Praise of Incrementalism (Replay)

What do Renaissance painting, civil-rights movements, and Olympic cycling have in common? In each case, huge breakthroughs came from taking tiny steps. In a world where everyone is looking for…

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Episode 311

Why Is the Live-Event Ticket Market So Screwed Up?

The public has almost no chance to buy good tickets to the best events. Ticket brokers, meanwhile, make huge profits on the secondary markets. Here’s the story of how this…

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Episode 264

In Praise of Incrementalism

What do Renaissance painting, civil-rights movements, and Olympic cycling have in common? In each case, huge breakthroughs came from taking tiny steps. In a world where everyone is looking for…

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Episode 16

What’s the Downside to Being Goal-Oriented?

Also: how does a cook become a chef? With Gabrielle Hamilton.

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Episode 76

Why Can’t Baby Boomers and Millennials Just Get Along?

Also: how do phone cameras affect the way we experience live events?…

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Episode 15

The Most “Unique, Excellent, and Promising” Episode

Studies by men published in scientific journals are more likely to include glowing, hyperbolic terms. Bapu talks about this “groundbreaking” research (see what we did there?) in a wide-ranging discussion…

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Episode 539

Why Does One Tiny State Set the Rules for Everyone?

Delaware is beloved by corporations, bankruptcy lawyers, tax avoiders, and money launderers. Critics say the Delaware “franchise” is undemocratic and corrupt. Insiders say it’s wildly efficient. We say: they’re both…

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Episode 194

Is It Okay to Be an Introvert?

What’s the difference between being introverted and being shy? What are extroverts so cheerful about? And does Angela’s social battery ever run out? Take the Big Five inventory: freakonomics.com/bigfive…

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EXTRA

Why Does One Tiny State Set the Rules for Everyone? (Update)

Until recently, Delaware was almost universally agreed to be the best place for companies to incorporate. Now, with Elon Musk leading a corporate stampede out of the First State, we…

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Episode 416

How Do You Reopen a Country?

We speak with a governor, a former C.D.C. director, a pandemic forecaster, a hard-charging pharmacist, and a pair of economists — who say it’s all about the incentives. (Pandemillions, anyone?)


What Was Tom DeLay Thinking?

…— that small is the new big, and that top-down political power is losing out to grass-roots organizers. That belief is apparently what informed his surprising prediction the other day…



Two Black Americas?

The Harvard sociologist Orlando Patterson, a guest OpEd columnist in the N.Y. Times, has an interesting piece today (subscription required) about W.E.B. DuBois’s famous prediction that the problem of the…



The FREAKest Links: The Furry Reaper Edition

…political markets, with the goal described as follows: “If a single prediction market is wiser than the pundits and the polls, imagine how wise all the prediction markets are together.”…



Super Tuesday Viewer’s Guide: A Guest Post

…spend tonight watching the ticker from political prediction markets a lot more closely than I’ll be watching the talking heads. Think of the market as distributed computing: Traders around the…




How to Streamline Drug Research?

…federal health authorities. One short-term goal is to identify, and rectify, the root causes of bottlenecks in the existing system. Longer term, the ambition is to create new prediction models,…



Selling My Addiction

…book?Carrots and Sticks: Unlock the Power of Incentives to Get Things Done to the commenter who posts (before Oct. 1) the best prediction of what the winning bid will end…



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Episode 458

How to Manage Your Goal Hierarchy

In this special crossover episode, People I (Mostly) Admire host Steve Levitt admits to No Stupid Questions co-host Angela Duckworth that he knows almost nothing about psychology. But once Angela…

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Episode 464

Will Work-from-Home Work Forever?

The pandemic may be winding down, but that doesn’t mean we’ll return to full-time commuting and packed office buildings. The greatest accidental experiment in the history of labor has lessons…

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Episode 392

The Prime Minister Who Cried Brexit

In 2016, David Cameron held a referendum on whether the U.K. should stay in the European Union. A longtime Euroskeptic, he nevertheless led the Remain campaign. So what did Cameron…

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Episode 16

Joshua Jay: “Humans Are So, So Easy to Fool.”

He’s a world-renowned magician who’s been performing since he was seven-years-old. But Joshua Jay is also an author, toymaker, and consultant for film and television. Steve Levitt talks to him…

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Episode 20

John Donohue: “I’m Frequently Called a Treasonous Enemy of the Constitution.”

He’s a law professor with a Ph.D. in economics and a tendency for getting into fervid academic debates. Over 20 years ago, he and Steve began studying the impact of…

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Episode 331

Why the Trump Tax Cuts Are Awesome/Terrible (Part 1)

Kevin Hassett, chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, explains the thinking behind the controversial new Republican tax package — and why its critics are wrong. (Next week, we’ll hear…

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Episode 11

How Much Does the President Really Matter?

The U.S. president is often called the “leader of the free world.” But if you ask an economist or a Constitutional scholar how much the occupant of the Oval Office…

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Episode 6

Why the World Cup Is an Economist’s Dream

Steve Levitt talks about why the center cannot hold in penalty kicks, why a running track hurts home-field advantage, and why the World Cup is an economist’s dream.

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Episode 35

Live From St. Paul!

Freakonomics Radio hits the road, and plays some Quiz Bowl!…

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Episode 32

Angela Duckworth Explains How to Manage Your Goal Hierarchy

She’s the author of the bestselling book Grit, and a University of Pennsylvania professor of psychology — a field Steve says he knows nothing about. But once Angela gives Steve…

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Episode 68

Why Do We Want What We Can’t Have?

Also: why are humans still so tribal?…