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Search Results for: Daniel Kahneman/2011/06/30/the-folly-of-prediction-full-transcript



Piracy's Next Frontier

…Guinea, where 32 incidents, including five hijackings, were reported in 2012, versus 25 in 2011. In Nigeria alone there were 17 reports, compared to six in 2011. Togo reported five…



Why Knockoffs Can Help Build a Strong Brand

…desirability of the brand, sparking trend-driven consumption that spills over—or up—to the original version. Gosline’s and Barnett’s findings are broadly reinforced by other recent research. A 2011 study by economist…




A Health Upside of Natural Gas

…the variation across space and time in the expansion of natural gas infrastructure in Turkish provinces using data between 2001 and 2011. Our results indicate that the rate of increase…





Good News for Child Obesity

…Disease Control (CDC) shows obesity rates dropping for low-income preschool children in 19 states between 2008 and 2011. From the Wall Street Journal: The obesity analysis, by the federal Centers…



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Episode 410

What Does Covid-19 Mean for Cities (and Marriages)?

There are a lot of upsides to urban density — but viral contagion is not one of them. Also: a nationwide lockdown will show if familiarity really breeds contempt. And:…

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Episode 439

Please Get Your Noise Out of My Ears

The modern world overwhelms us with sounds we didn’t ask for, like car alarms and cell-phone “halfalogues.” What does all this noise cost us in terms of productivity, health, and…

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Episode 441

Does Advertising Actually Work? (Part 2: Digital)

Google and Facebook are worth a combined $2 trillion, with the vast majority of their revenue coming from advertising. In our previous episode, we learned that TV advertising is much…

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Episode 263

In Praise of Maintenance (Replay)

Has our culture’s obsession with innovation led us to neglect the fact that things also need to be taken care of?

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Episode 312

Not Your Grandmother’s I.M.F.

The International Monetary Fund has long been the “lender of last resort” for economies in crisis. Christine Lagarde, who runs the institution, would like to prevent those crises from ever…

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Episode 301

What Would Be the Best Universal Language?

We explore votes for English, Indonesian and … Esperanto! The search for a common language goes back millennia, but so much still gets lost in translation. Will technology finally solve…

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Episode 241

Are Payday Loans Really as Evil as People Say?

Critics — including President Obama — say short-term, high-interest loans are predatory, trapping borrowers in a cycle of debt. But some economists see them as a useful financial instrument for…

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Episode 231

Is Migration a Basic Human Right?

The gist: the argument for open borders is compelling — and deeply problematic.

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Episode 263

In Praise of Maintenance

Has our culture’s obsession with innovation led us to neglect the fact that things also need to be taken care of?

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Episode 84

Legacy of a Jerk

What happens to your reputation when you’re no longer around to defend it?

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Episode 84

Legacy of a Jerk (Replay)

What happens to your reputation when you’re no longer around to defend it?

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Episode 111

Would You Be Happier if You Lived Someplace Else?

Will Angela finally break up with Philadelphia? Is New York really the unhappiest city in the U.S.? And are there trash tornadoes in the metaverse?…

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Episode 439

Please Get Your Noise Out of My Ears (Update)

The pandemic provided city dwellers with a break from the din of the modern world. Now the noise is coming back. What does that mean for our productivity, health, and…

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Episode 522

Is Google Getting Worse?

It used to feel like magic. Now it can feel like a set of cheap tricks. Is the problem with Google — or with us?…

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Episode 123

What’s Wrong With Coveting?

What’s the difference between schadenfreude and sadism? Can envy be put to good use? And how do you teach a kid to punch a clown?…

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Episode 129

Why Do We Cheat, and Why Shouldn’t We?

Is there such a thing as a victimless crime? In an unfair system, is dishonesty okay? And are adolescent vandals out of ideas?…

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Episode 20

Tattoo Parlors

More people than ever before are getting tattoos — but social media has flipped the trade’s business model on its head. Zachary Crockett dips into the ink.

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Episode 565

Are Private Equity Firms Plundering the U.S. Economy?

They say they make companies more efficient through savvy management. Critics say they bend the rules to enrich themselves at the expense of consumers and employees. Can they both be…

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Episode 522

Is Google Getting Worse? (Update)

It used to feel like magic. Now it can feel like a set of cheap tricks. Is the problem with Google — or with us? And is Google Search finally…

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Episode 263

In Praise of Maintenance (Update)

We revisit an episode from 2016 that asks: Has our culture’s obsession with innovation led us to neglect the fact that things also need to be taken care of?…

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Episode 71

Mannequins

Mannequins may be made out of plastic or fiberglass, but for retailers they’re pure gold. Zachary Crockett strikes a pose….