Mountains account for 10 percent of the world population, and 25 percent of its surface, yet they host a strikingly disproportionate number of wars and conflicts. Since World War II,…
In our second round of FREAK-quently Asked Questions, Steve Levitt answers some queries from listeners and readers.
When Richard Thaler published Nudge in 2008 with co-author Cass Sunstein, the world was just starting to believe in his brand of behavioral economics. How did nudge theory hold up…
You wouldn’t think you could win a Nobel Prize for showing that humans tend to make irrational decisions. But that’s what Richard Thaler has done. The founder of behavioral economics…
You wouldn’t think you could win a Nobel Prize for showing that humans tend to make irrational decisions. But that’s what Richard Thaler has done. The founder of behavioral economics…
One man’s attempt to remake his life in the mold of homo economicus.
The Nobel laureate and pioneering behavioral economist spars with Steve over what makes a nudge a nudge, and admits that even economists have plenty of blind spots….
Human beings love to predict the future, but we’re quite terrible at it. So how about punishing all those bad predictions?
Human beings love to predict the future, but we’re quite terrible at it. So how about punishing all those bad predictions?
It’s time to do away with feel-good stories, gut hunches, and magical thinking.
…the blog via feed, meanwhile, and prefer the old full feed to the current partial feed, won’t be receiving the outcome they wanted. After a lot of deliberation, here’s the…
Also: How do you recover from a bad day?…
Is it enough to toss a soda can in the recycling? Why is Maria obsessed with Nobel Prize lectures? And wait — is that a news alert or a tiger?…
…up to. (And if you want more, he writes the always-interesting Oddhead Blog). A Prediction Market Trading Pit for the Digital Age By David Pennock Prediction markets are a boon…
…and sometimes dumber than dogs). We also hear about binge drinking, humblebragging, and regrets. Recorded live in Philadelphia with guests including Richard Thaler, Angela Duckworth, Katy Milkman, and Tom Gilovich….
Must one always strive for excellence? Is perfectionism a good thing? And can Mike have two bad days in a row?
We talk to a U.S. Geological Survey physicist about the science — and folly — of predicting earthquakes. There are lots of known knowns; and, fortunately, not too many unknown…
…prediction into their own assessments. At the moment, individual decision-makers tend to improve their prediction when given statistical aids; but they still tend to wave off the statistical prediction too…
…to date: 1. Forrest Nelson, George Neumann, and Phil Polgreen will be presenting results from the Iowa Influenza Prediction Market. This is one of the most important public policy prediction…
Harvard economist Raj Chetty uses tax data to study inequality, kid success, and social mobility. He explains why you should be careful when choosing your grade school teachers — and…
Just a few decades ago, more than 90 percent of 30-year-olds earned more than their parents had earned at the same age. Now it’s only about 50 percent. What happened…
…for bad predictions. Also, they tend to be deeply unscientific. The psychologist Philip Tetlock is finally turning prediction into a science — and now even you could become a superforecaster….
…subscriptions did get properly redirected last week, you will probably be unhappy about losing the full feed. 3. The partial feed that the Times been offering since the move was…
One Yale economist certainly thinks so. But even if he’s right, are economists any better?…
Artificial intelligence, we’ve been told, will destroy humankind. No, wait — it will usher in a new age of human flourishing! Guest host Adam Davidson (co-founder of Planet Money) sorts…
The benefits of sleep are by now well established, and yet many people don’t get enough. A new study suggests we should channel our inner toddler and get 30 minutes…
It should surprise no one, and delight everyone, that Richard Thaler has won this year’s Nobel in economics. Congratulations! Thaler is a big reason I personally got interested in economics….
Our “Folly of Prediction” podcast included an interview with Joe Prusacki, who directs the statistics division at the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service. This means he helps make crop forecasts…
For years, economists promised that global free trade would be mostly win-win. Now they admit the pace of change has been “traumatic.” This has already led to a political insurrection…
In a short piece in the latest Science journal, about the Promise of Prediction Markets, we provide a short review of the literature on prediction markets — how and why…
