We all have our favorite business cycle indicators. I have a new one. Last week I was at the (superb!) NBER Summer Institute. And for the first time in 15 years of attending this conference, there was no guacamole on Taco Day. The bad GDP data had come out a mere three hours earlier. Coincidence, or coincident indicator?
No need to convene the Business Cycle Dating Committee: The guacamole has spoken. It’s the first casualty of a double-dip.