Harvard Shuts Down its Nobel Prize Pool

Last week we posted about Harvard's Nobel Prize Pool, where people could place bets predicting this year's winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics for $1 per entry. The Harvard economics faculty ran the site for a few years, dubbing it, "the world’s most accurate prediction market." Apparently, Harvard wasn't too keen on the idea, as the following notice now appears on the site:

Unfortunately, we have been advised by Harvard University to immediately shut down the Nobel pool due to legal reasons, and we have decided to comply with this request. We will fully reimburse the money of all participants, and we apologize for any inconvenience this creates for you. All participants will be contacted by email.

For anyone who watched the site closely over the last week, do you remember the odds for the actual winners, Thomas J. Sargent and Christopher A. Sims?

America’s Best Pundit: Economix vs. Freakonomics

Economix, a blog run by The New York Times newsroom, is running a fun prediction contest ahead of tomorrow’s election. You have to pick three prediction-market stocks, and the winner is the person with the most profitable portfolio. You can enter here and read more here. Economix is running this contest partly because David Leonhardt […]

A New Kind of Campaign Advertising?

An anonymous Intrade investor poured hundreds of thousands of dollars into McCain futures, inflating the market’s prediction that Sen. McCain would win the presidency, an internal Intrade investigation has revealed. The unusual trades drove down Intrade’s odds of an Obama victory by as much as 10 percent “for more than a month,” CQ Politics reports. […]