…managed with a more effective use of technology by the Treasury.” Prediction: tax cheating will increase significantly during the Obama years. Prescription: make the I.R.S. more digital, and eliminate the…
…in a blue-to-red direction. But predictions aren’t elections; and even if the predictions hold true, what happens next? So we checked in with some clever people who care a lot…
Photo: Peter Batty Dubner and I have been thinking a lot these days about pundits who make predictions. The incentives surrounding predictions are completely skewed. If I make a wild…
How likely is it that this conversation is happening in more than one universe? Should we worry more about Covid or about nuclear war? Is economics a form of “intellectual…
Would you be more adventurous if you had more structure? Do you multitask while brushing your teeth? And what would Mike’s perfect brother Peter do?…
…too much weight to smaller prediction market contracts? It’s worth acknowledging that in the prediction-market world, an individual betting a few hundred dollars could raise the “likelihood” of an upcoming…
Why does the U.S. use Fahrenheit when Celsius is better? Would you quit your job if a coin flip told you to? And how do you get an entire country…
…those 30 are almost certainly involved in terrorist activities. Five out of 30 isn’t perfect — the algorithm misses many terrorists and still falsely identifies some innocents — but it…
Learning requires practice — and if you visit a teaching hospital in July, there’s a good chance your doctor hasn’t had much of it. So, will your care suffer? The…
Probably not — the incentives are too strong. Scholarly publishing is a $28 billion global industry, with misconduct at every level. But a few reformers are gaining ground. (Part two…
Probably not — the incentives are too strong. But a few reformers are trying. We check in on their progress, in an update to an episode originally published last year….
Also: how did Angela do with her no-sugar challenge?…
Kidney failure is such a catastrophic (and expensive) disease that Medicare covers treatment for anyone, regardless of age. Since Medicare reimbursement rates are fairly low, the dialysis industry had to…
Colonoscopy is strongly recommended for Americans over 45. But a new study suggests its benefits have been overstated. Should we change how we screen for colorectal cancer?…
…world views to explain the rest. Before I turn to my own explanations, here are two that I got from people I admire. Nobel laureate and Princeton professor Daniel Kahneman…
Also: what is the most significant choice you will ever make?…
In this special episode of No Stupid Questions, Stephen Dubner and Angela Duckworth discuss the consequences of seeing every glass as at least half-full….
What’s the difference between dispositional optimism and agentic hope? Are there benefits to taking a long shot, even if it turns out to be an air ball? And how is…
Climbing the corporate ladder to become head of Nike’s Jordan brand, he kept his teenage murder conviction a secret from employers. Larry talks about living in fear, accepting forgiveness, and…
Are you a problem solver or an opportunity seeker? Why is it so hard to find a good leader these days? And could you be Angela’s next boss?…
Are Europeans more sophisticated than Americans? What’s wrong with preferring Taylor Swift to Puccini? And is Steve Levitt “Team Edward” or “Team Jacob”?
Former U.S. Secretary of Education, 3×3 basketball champion, and leader of an anti-gun violence organization are all on Arne’s resume. He’s also Steve’s neighbor. The two talk about teachers caught…
Former U.S. Secretary of Education, 3×3 basketball champion, and leader of an anti-gun violence organization are all on Arne’s resume. He’s also Steve’s neighbor. The two talk about teachers caught…
Also: Does knowing your family history affect your identity?…
What if the thing we call “talent” is grotesquely overrated? And what if deliberate practice is the secret to excellence? Those are the claims of the research psychologist Anders Ericsson,…
Hit by Covid, runaway costs, and a zillion streams of competition, serious theater is in serious trouble. A new hit play called Stereophonic — the most Tony-nominated play in history…
A lot of full-time jobs in the modern economy simply don’t pay a living wage. And even those jobs may be obliterated by new technologies. What’s to be done so…
In a special episode of People I (Mostly) Admire, Steve Levitt talks to Cat Bohannon about her new book Eve: How the Female Body Drove 200 Million Years of Human…
…story certainly seems plausible. Miami Heat vs. Orlando Magic on Dec 21, 2011. (Photo: RMTip21) A few years ago, though, Martin Schmidt and I investigated the impact disputes have upon…
