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Search Results for: Daniel Kahneman/2011/06/30/the-folly-of-prediction-full-transcript

A Great Example of Bias Within Academia

It is amazing how good we are — even the smartest, most rational people among us — at not recognizing our own biases. (Danny Kahneman memorably calls this being “blind…



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Episode 402

The Opioid Tragedy, Part 1: “We’ve Addicted an Entire Generation”

How pharma greed, government subsidies, and a push to make pain the “fifth vital sign” kicked off a crisis that costs $80 billion a year and has killed hundreds of…

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Episode 415

How Rahm Emanuel Would Run the World

As a former top adviser to presidents Clinton and Obama, he believes in the power of the federal government. But as former mayor of Chicago, he says that cities are…

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Episode 43

What Do We Really Learn From Failure?

Also: What is teasing supposed to accomplish?

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Episode 82

Is This the Future of High School?

Khan Academy founder Sal Khan returns to share his vision for a new way to learn — and the conversation inspires Steve to make a big announcement.

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Episode 184

Are You Doing Too Much?

How can you strive for excellence without overworking yourself? Why is perfectionism on the rise? And is Angela part of the problem?…

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Episode 151

Neurobiologist, Philosopher, and Addict

Owen Flanagan’s newest book details his 20-year dependence on alcohol and pills — and outlines his research on what addiction can tell us about the nature of consciousness….

The Happiness Wars Continue

…life satisfaction concept and a much larger sample, the differences are now recognised as vast, as shown in the chapter here by Ed Diener, Daniel Kahneman, and colleagues. As I…



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Episode 149

Is It Harder to Make Friends as an Adult?

How do friendships change as we get older? Should you join a bowling league? And is Angela more important to Mike than Mike is to Angela?…

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Episode 294

The Fracking Boom, a Baby Boom, and the Retreat From Marriage

Over 40 percent of U.S. births are to unmarried mothers, and the numbers are especially high among the less-educated. Why? One argument is that the decline in good manufacturing jobs…

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Episode 288

Are the Rich Really Less Generous Than the Poor?

A series of academic studies suggest that the wealthy are, to put it bluntly, selfish jerks. It’s an easy narrative to swallow — but is it true? A trio of…

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Episode 293

Why Hate the Koch Brothers? (Part 2)

Charles Koch, the mega-billionaire C.E.O. of Koch Industries and half of the infamous political machine, sees himself as a classical liberal. So why do most Democrats hate him so much?…


Scoring the Pennsylvania Primary

…argue that political prediction markets can help us understand which candidates actually exceeded pre-poll expectations. Some simple observations: Clinton‘s 9.5 point victory margin was roughly what one might expect from…



Parsing the Indiana and North Carolina Primaries

…Indiana, it’s tempting to call Tuesday’s primary vote a split decision. Instead, political prediction markets have declared Senator Obama a clear winner. Senator Obama began Election Day rated a 76…



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Episode 11

How Much Does the President Really Matter? (Replay)

The U.S. president is often called the “leader of the free world.” But if you ask an economist or a Constitutional scholar how much the occupant of the Oval Office…

How to Become an Insta-Expert: A Confession

…fun application of prediction markets.? By quickly scanning the latest market prices, I managed to become an insta-expert.? In fact, I managed to become such an insta-expert that I’ll be…



Middle East Despot Watch

I’ve been watching developments in the Middle East and Northern Africa closely.? It can be hard to keep track of it all.? Fortunately, the prediction markets at?InTrade provide a useful…



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Episode 97

How Smart Is a Forest?

Ecologist Suzanne Simard studies the relationships between trees in a forest: they talk to each other, punish each other, and depend on each other. What can we learn from them?

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Episode 64

Sushi Fish

How does a fresh tuna get from Japan to Nebraska before it goes bad? And how does its journey show up in the price of your spicy tuna rolls? Zachary…

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Episode 153

We’re Not Getting Sicker — We’re Overdiagnosed

Suzanne O’Sullivan is a neurologist who sees many patients with psychosomatic disorders. Their symptoms may be psychological in origin, but their pain is real and physical — and the way…

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Episode 61

Was Austan Goolsbee’s First Visit to the Oval Office Almost His Last?

The former chairman of the Obama administration’s Council of Economic Advisors tells Steve how improv comedy was a better training ground for teaching than a Ph.D. from M.I.T., and why…

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Episode 6

Genes

“What breed is she?” Every owner of a mixed-breed dog is eventually asked this when out on a walk. But how much do dogs’ breeds — and genes — really…

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Episode 73

Who Pays for Multimillion-Dollar Miracle Cures?

The most expensive drugs in the world are treatments for genetic diseases. And more of these cures are on the horizon. How will anyone be able to afford them?…

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Episode 28

Why Do We Hoard?

Also: Do you spend more time thinking about the past, the present, or the future?

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Episode 212

The Economics of Sleep, Part 2

People who sleep better earn more money. Now all we have to do is teach everyone to sleep better.

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Episode 571

Greeting Cards, Pizza Boxes, and Personal Injury Lawyers

In a special episode of The Economics of Everyday Things, host Zachary Crockett explains what millennials do to show they care, how corrugated cardboard keeps your food warm, and why…

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Episode 127

Rajiv Shah Never Wastes a Crisis

After Haiti’s devastating earthquake, Rajiv Shah headed the largest humanitarian effort in U.S. history. As chief economist of the Gates Foundation he tried to immunize almost a billion children. He…

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Episode 501

The University of Impossible-to-Get-Into (Update)

America’s top colleges are facing record demand. So why don’t they increase supply? (Part 2 of our series from 2022, “Freakonomics Radio Goes Back to School.”)…

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Episode 299

“How Much Brain Damage Do I Have?”

John Urschel was the only player in the N.F.L. simultaneously getting a math Ph.D. at M.I.T. But after a new study came out linking football to brain damage, he abruptly…