Daniel Kahneman Calls for Change
Nobel laureate and frequent Freakonomics visitor Daniel Kahneman (author of Thinking, Fast and Slow ) has written an open letter to psychologists who work on social priming, calling for them…
…for bad predictions. Also, they tend to be deeply unscientific. The psychologist Philip Tetlock is finally turning prediction into a science — and now even you could become a superforecaster….
Artificial intelligence, we’ve been told, will destroy humankind. No, wait — it will usher in a new age of human flourishing! Guest host Adam Davidson (co-founder of Planet Money) sorts…
Nobel laureate and frequent Freakonomics visitor Daniel Kahneman (author of Thinking, Fast and Slow ) has written an open letter to psychologists who work on social priming, calling for them…
For years, economists promised that global free trade would be mostly win-win. Now they admit the pace of change has been “traumatic.” This has already led to a political insurrection…
I recently had the chance to read an advance copy of an outstanding book by Daniel Kahneman entitled Thinking, Fast and Slow. The book will be published this fall. (Stockbyte)…
…, with Jonathan Rose and Kenneth Snowden. The Folly of Eminent Domain Takings of Failing Mortgage Loans By Price Fishback Several cities around the country are considering using eminent domain…
Whether it’s a giant infrastructure plan or a humble kitchen renovation, it’ll inevitably take way too long and cost way too much. That’s because you suffer from “the planning fallacy.”…
Whether it’s a giant infrastructure plan or a humble kitchen renovation, it’ll inevitably take way too long and cost way too much. That’s because you suffer from “the planning fallacy.”…
…to date: 1. Forrest Nelson, George Neumann, and Phil Polgreen will be presenting results from the Iowa Influenza Prediction Market. This is one of the most important public policy prediction…
…prediction into their own assessments. At the moment, individual decision-makers tend to improve their prediction when given statistical aids; but they still tend to wave off the statistical prediction too…
Must one always strive for excellence? Is perfectionism a good thing? And can Mike have two bad days in a row?
The gist: the Nobel selection process is famously secretive (and conducted in Swedish!) but we pry the lid off, at least a little bit.
The process is famously secretive (and conducted in Swedish!) but we pry the lid off at least a little bit.
Whether it’s a giant infrastructure plan or a humble kitchen renovation, it’ll inevitably take way too long and cost way too much. That’s because you suffer from “the planning fallacy.”…
(Stockbyte) Last spring, we posted on Phil Tetlock’s massive prediction tournament: Good Judgment. You might remember Tetlock from our latest Freakonomics Radio podcast, “The Folly of Prediction.” (You can download/subscribe…
Daniel Ek, a 23-year-old Swede who grew up on pirated music, made the record labels an offer they couldn’t refuse: a legal platform to stream all the world’s music. Spotify…
What do gamblers and referees have in common? When do machines make better decisions than people? And has Stephen been replaced by a computer?
What are Mike and Angela’s favorite songs to cry to? Can upbeat music lift you out of a bad mood? And what is Angela going to sing the next time…
Photo: Spike Mafford You may remember Phil Tetlock from our Freakonomics Radio hour-long episode “The Folly of Prediction.” He’s a psychologist at Penn and author of the deservedly well-regarded book…
Freakonomics asks a dozen smart people for their best ideas. Get ready for a fat tax, a sugar ban, and a calorie-chomping tapeworm.
Should government jobs have mandatory retirement ages? Is it foolish to care about your legacy? And why did Jason always call Angela’s father “Dr. Lee”?…
…to make it easier for researchers to create them. While the statement argues the merits of prediction markets extremely cogently, and while I’m completely in favor of prediction markets and…
In a short piece in the latest Science journal, about the Promise of Prediction Markets, we provide a short review of the literature on prediction markets — how and why…
Why are great accomplishments often followed by disappointment? Is it better to win and feel bummed out than to never have won at all? And where was ping-pong invented?…
Seth Stephens-Davidowitz combs through mountains of information to find advice for everyday life….
…that are consistent through time. Gapper delves into evolutionary biology and the research of Daniel Kahneman to better understand the nature of men like Nick Leeson, Joe Jett, and Jerome…
Ellen Wiebe is a physician who helps seriously ill patients end their lives in Canada, where assisted suicide is legal. Is death a human right?
In my last post, I promised to say a bit more about prediction markets at Google. Google has been running internal prediction markets for a couple of years, and Eric…
One of the real barriers to widespread adoption of prediction markets by U.S. corporations has been a murky legal environment. Are prediction markets legitimate business tools, an alternative set of…
